At a Glance

There hasn't been a widespread major winter storm in the eastern two-thirds of the country yet this fall.Fall has been unusually warm in most areas east of the Rockies.Recent events have been too moisture-starved or too far north to produce widespread heavy snow.The number of named winter storms typically ramps up quickly in late November.

There hasn't been a widespread major winter storm so far this fall east of the Rockies, and it's later than usual.

Other than in the mountain West, where building the seasonal snowpack is important for relief, there hasn't been much heavy snow yet this season.

The Interstate 95 Northeast urban corridor typically sees its first snow in late November or December, but there hasn't been much interior Northeast snow, other than New Hampshire's .

Chicago's lack of measurable snow through mid-November is typical, and Minneapolis-St. Paul's first one-inch snowfall arrived a tad earlier than usual last weekend.

Denver, however, is nearing for its first measurable snow, a record that has stood since the Great Depression.

Still Waiting For the 'A' Storm

That's not to say there haven't been some impactful snow events.

Last week, a storm produced strong winds and blizzard conditions in parts of the eastern Dakotas. But snow amounts were fairly modest, mainly less than 6 inches, in most areas except for northern Minnesota.

In , heavy snow blanketed the Rockies and adjacent High Plains of Montana, Wyoming and western South Dakota.

But neither of those systems reached the criteria for a named winter storm.

Since 2013, The Weather Channel has named winter storms when National Weather Service winter storm, ice storm or blizzard warnings are issued or expected for at least 2 million people or for an area of at least 400,000 square kilometers, an area slightly larger than Montana.

An average of 22 to 23 systems each season are widespread enough to be named.

(MORE: Here Are the 2021-2022 Winter Storm Names)

In those eight winter seasons since 2013-14, an average of 1 to 2 named winter storms would have already happened by the third week of November. These early season storms usually occur in the Rockies, High Plains, upper Midwest, or interior Northeast.

The number of named winter storms, by month, from 2013 through spring 2021. February is the peak month for winter storms.

The latest wait for the season's first named storm was Nov. 17, 2016, when made a cross-country journey from the West to the Midwest, then became a record snowstorm for Binghamton, New York.

Last fall couldn't have been more different. Three named storms formed from late October through the second week of November.

The season's first storm, Abigail, was the heaviest snowstorm so early in fall in Minneapolis-St. Paul. That was just one of .

Why the Long Wait?

There have been persistent themes in the weather pattern this fall that have prevented large-scale, major winter storms from happening.

Domes of high pressure have been common since Oct. 1 over eastern Canada.

That's kept temperatures generally warmer than average over the eastern two thirds of the country, especially in October, which was for many Midwest and eastern states.

Meanwhile, the jet stream has steered a parade of storms into the Northwest.

But that has often steered low pressure systems too far north to produce a large-enough area of heavy snow in the U.S.

The low-pressure systems that have swept into the U.S. have been either too moisture-starved or too warm for widespread heavy snow.

Anomalies in the upper-level weather pattern (at 500 millibars) from Oct. 1 through Nov. 14. Persistent high pressure aloft over eastern Canada has kept much of the central and east warmer than usual. A persistent jet stream plunge has kept the Northwest wetter than usual.

(NOAA)

The Wait Won't Last Long

The pace of named winter storms accelerates from late November into December (see bar graph above).

For a widespread,major winter storm, cold air needs to hold in place as low pressure forms.

Colder air is now building in Alaska and parts of northwest Canada, and significant plunges of colder air are coming into the Plains, Midwest and East.

Our latest released earlier this month calls for a colder-than-usual December across much of the northern tier, especially the Midwest.

expects a wetter than usual winter in the Midwest and Northwest, typical of what to expect during a developing .

This means it's only a matter of time before the first widespread major winter storm of the season arrives.

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