At a Glance

There are several factors that make the forecast for snow in the South this weekend tricky.Cutoff lows are hard to predict and its track and strength will make a difference.Temperatures at the ground and through the different heights in the atmosphere are also important.

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T​he forecast in the South is a bit tricky this weekend as wintry weather is possible in some areas.

What We Know: T​he best chance of snow will be in the central and southern Appalachians. Our full forecast for this system can be found .

W​hat Is More Uncertain: Details on how much snow there will be in some of the lower elevations remain unclear.

The Important Factors: The track and strength of the upper-level low, along with temperatures at different heights and at the ground.

W​hat's Most Likely To Happen: Don't be surprised if lower elevations from far northern Georgia to the western Carolinas, eastern Tennessee and western Virginia see snow mix with rain or even change completely to snow for a time. But significant accumulations aren't expected on roads, though grassy and elevated areas could have some snow accumulations.

B​elow, we take a closer look at the factors that will make a big difference in whether or not some areas see snowflakes.

T​rack Of The Cutoff Low

W​hen areas of low pressure become cut off from the jet stream, they're typically difficult to predict since they are not steered by those upper-level winds. Sometimes they linger and meander a bit, adding more headaches to the forecast.

T​he exact track of these types of lows matters for where will see precipitation. In this case, it will make a big difference for where wintry weather will be possible.

T​he position of the cutoff low this weekend will allow moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to stream northward. Areas near and just north of where the upper-level cutoff low tracks have the potential for some wintry weather.

S​trength Of The Upper-Level Low

The upper-level low may be able to strengthen enough to bring colder air from aloft closer to the ground.

Dynamic cooling is also possible with a strengthening system. This occurs when there is strong upward motion that can produce heavy precipitation. In higher levels of the atmosphere, precipitation will start as snow and melt as it falls into warmer air. If there is enough cold air and the precipitation is heavy enough over time, that melting snow can cool the air, and eventually, rain can change to snow.

Strong Upper-Level Low Possible

A​ir Temperatures

T​emperatures will generally stay above freezing this weekend in the South; The exception will be in parts of the higher elevations of the Appalachians.

H​owever, it can snow when temperatures are above freezing. According to the National Weather Service office in Atlanta, "It's unclear exactly at what temperature snow will be able to make it to the ground, but in past setups usually that values in somewhere between 35-38 degrees."

T​emperatures in parts of the region early Sunday will be within the range where it's possible that some snowflakes could mix in.

G​round Temperatures

E​ven if snowflakes are in the air, that does not mean they will accumulate or lead to travel problems.

T​he past few days have been very mild across the region, with highs well into the 60s and even 70s. As a result, the ground is warm and takes time to cool.

In addition, this system is not bringing a particularly cold air mass with it, so temperatures will only drop into the 30s by Sunday morning. Highs will rise into the 40s, and possibly into the 50s for some, Sunday afternoon.

T​his means that even if rain changes to snow, accumulation is unlikely in most areas. Some locations may see accumulation on grassy surfaces, but widespread slippery roads are not expected.

T​he higher elevations of the central and southern Appalachians, however, will be cold enough for some light to moderate snow accumulation.

Warm Highs Observed This Week

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