At a Glance

This latest tropical storm is far from land. It is forecast to turn northwestward later this week. It is not a threat to the Lesser Antilles.

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Tropical Storm Philippe formed in the middle of the tropical Atlantic Ocean Saturday and is forecast to curl northwestward later this week, keeping it away from the Lesser Antilles.

The system is over a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and is traveling westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

P​hilippe is still over Atlantic Ocean water that is , if not at record levels, for this time of year.

H​owever, it's also facing wind shear, and may do so for the next several days. T​hat may keep it from gaining much strength for some time, as the forecast below shows.

Another wide turn ahead? Philippe will follow the southern edge of the Bermuda high over the next day or so, typically moving west or west-northwest.

B​ut that Bermuda high will weaken and move east by the middle of the week. That means Philippe would then make a northwestward turn.

After that, Philippe's future may depend on now strong it is.

I​f it's still at least a decent tropical storm it may curl north out into the central Atlantic Ocean similar to what Nigel did last week.

I​f it experiences too much shear and weakens, it could then be deflected back to the west.

E​ither way, we don't expect Philippe will pose any direct threat to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands. At most, Philippe may generate some swells leading to high surf along north and east-facing shores later this week.

Those in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should still monitor the forecast in case there are changes.

Model Forecast Tracks

(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path.)

Autumn brings a new storm track: T​he African tropical wave train generally becomes less active as we move into late September and October, and we'll need to begin looking closer to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic for tropical development for the remainder of the season.

Common Development Areas for October

H​urricane season continues through the end of November and several additional tropical systems are expected over the next two months.

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