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Study: Global Warming Happens Quicker Than Previously Thought
Study: Global Warming Happens Quicker Than Previously Thought
Jan 17, 2024 3:36 PM

Global leaders currently meeting in Peru for the U.N. climate talks might have come to the summit with the assumption that, based on the current body of scientific research, the Earth wouldn't start warming from today's carbon emissions for 30 to 40 years.

But according to new research, the lag time between carbon emissions and their impact on the atmosphere might actually be much shorter, down to just 10 years, meaning that whatever policy leaders draft and vote on in Paris in 2015 could have a much more immediate impact on Earth's changing climate.

(MORE: Most Americans Believe in Climate Change)

The study, conducted by Katharine Ricke and others from the Carnegie Institution for Science, used multiple climate models to project 6,000 different warming scenarios for a pulse of CO2, Discovery News reports. Ricke found that, on average, it took just 10.1 years for peak warming impacts to kick-in from those CO2 emissions.

“We were curious about when the time is until the maximum warning occurs from carbon dioxide emissions that you make today,” Ricke told Discovery News. "We weren’t expecting the maximum warming to occur in 10 years. We couldn’t believe no one had done this before. We kept looking for the reference and it didn’t exist."

It's important to note that, while this study shortens the estimated timeframe between carbon emissions and peak warming, it still reaffirms that CO2 can linger in the atmosphere for years, leading to warming that can persist for centuries, Phys.org reports.

(MORE: Why the U.N. Climate Talks Matter)

That means any international agreement to curb carbon emissions could have a much more immediate impact on short term climate change effects like heat waves and other extreme weather events, but long term effects like sea level rise and glacial melt would still be felt for centuries to come due to current and past emissions.

That's huge news for climate policymakers, Ricke said, because it gives them an opportunity to lobby the much more immediate benefits a drastic cut in carbon emissions could have on the Earth.

“From a policy making perspective or a psychological perspective, there’s a huge difference to something happening 10 years from now to 30 or 40 years from now,” Ricke told Discovery News.

"Our results show that people alive today are very likely to benefit from emissions avoided today and that these will not accrue solely to impact future generations," Ricke told Phys.org.

For a link to the full study click here.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Alaska's Disappearing Glaciers

Muir Glacier and Inlet (1895)

In the photo above, the west shoreline of Muir Inlet in Alaska's Glacier Bay National Park & Preserve is shown as it appeared in 1895. Notice the lack of vegetation on the slopes of the mountains, and the glacier that stands more than 300 feet high. See the glacier as it looked in 2005 on the next page. (USGS/Bruce Molnia)

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