Below-Average Snow So Far

Frankly, the 2012-2013 "snow season", outside of Winter Storm Athena and the wintry side of Superstorm Sandy, has been rather benign in parts of the Northeast. For example, here are some snowfall season-to-date deficits through Jan. 31:

Albany, N.Y.: -15" (19.6" snow so far)Boston, Mass.: -14.8" (only 8.8" snow so far)Washington, D.C.: -7.3" (only 1.3" snow so far)Philadelphia, Pa.: -6.1" (only 4.4" snow so far)New York City: -5.8" (only 6.6" snow so far)

Then again, February has a notorious history for East Coast snowstorms.

With that in mind, how much snow can we expect with this weekend's system?

Forecast Through Sunday

Snow Forecast

Over the last few days, some forecast guidance was suggesting a disturbance aloft would generate a surface low that would track near the East Coast resulting in the possibility of significant snow in the Northeast on Sunday.

Now, the preponderance of the meteorological evidence suggests the low will pass well off the Northeast coast. Therefore, at this time, we are not expecting a major Northeast snowstorm.

That said, upper-level energy pivoting through will cause light snow to fall in parts of the Northeast Sunday, including the I-95 corridor from the Nation's Capital north to Philly, New York City, and southern New England, including Boston. Our snow forecast map at the top right shows that very little accumulation is expected.

Current Radar

Monday, again for now, appears to be more windy than wintry, as the low heads into the Canadian Maritimes.

Current forecast models suggest a pressure drop of over 40 millibars during the 24 hour period into Monday - a process known by meteorologists as bombogenesis. Strong northwest winds may buffet New England and New York state Monday.

We expect only lingering light snow (locally heavier in lake-effect snowbelts) from northern New England to the Appalachians Monday.

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Hoarfrost and fall foliage on Oct. 19, 2015 near Corning, New York. (Photo credit: Colleen Hart/The Weather Channel Facebook page)