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Snow Ahead for South? Rockies, Plains, Midwest, Northeast Could See Accumulations (FORECAST)
Snow Ahead for South? Rockies, Plains, Midwest, Northeast Could See Accumulations (FORECAST)
Nov 13, 2024 9:25 AM

You may have checked have checked The Weather Channel app on your smartphone or tablet and noticed a snowflake icon in the forecast, perhaps for the first time this season this weekend into early next week.

On the heels of Winter Storm Astro, the potential for snow is there Saturday through Monday for a large part of the Plains, Midwest, and at least interior Northeast. For some locations, it may be the first accumulating snow of the season.

Yes, parts of the South could see some snow too.

(MORE:Expert Analysis|Winter Storm Central)

Let's break down the day-by-day forecast, then dive into whether this is a bit unusual for mid-November in some locations.

Forecast Timing

Saturday's Forecast

Sunday's Forecast

Monday's Forecast

-Saturday:A broad area of snow will spread across the central Plains, Missouri Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley, spreading to the Great Lakes Saturday evening. A second area of snow will plunge southward from central Rockies and Plains along a reinforcing blast of arctic air.

-Sunday:An expansive area of light snow may fall from parts of the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and northern New England.

- Monday:A stripe of snow may fall on the backside of advancing, reinforcing cold front in parts of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast.

While not a widespread threat at this time, we can't rule out some patchy areas of sleet and/or freezing rain along the southern edge of the precipitation shield from the southern Plains to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.

Indeed, the exact placement of the sub-freezing surface air Saturday through Monday remains a bit uncertain, typical of any winter forecast this far out.

This is particularly the case regarding the rain/snow line in the Northeast on Monday. If cold air remains more stubbornly in place closer to the I-95 corridor, accumulating snow would occur closer to that heavily-populated region Monday. If not, rain would be the dominant precipitation.

(FORECAST:Cincinnati|Pittsburgh|NYC|Wash., D.C.)

Potential Impact: How Much Snow?

Snowfall accumulations in most low-elevation areas should remain less than 6 inches.

The best chance of over 6 inches of snow -- though not a terribly high chance -- would be in the mountains and adjacent Front Range of Colorado and northern New Mexico, a few localized spots in the central Plains, and the mountains of Upstate New York and northern New England.

Atmospheric moisture may be modest in thecold air, resulting in light accumulations. Without strong low pressure forming along the front, deeper moisture may not wrap into the cold air.

That's not to say there wouldn't be significant impacts, however.

It doesn't take much snow to slicken roads, especially in areas less accustomed to frequent snow where fewer roads may be untreated. Even pre-treated roads could refreeze as colder air spills in later in the weekend.

(FORECAST: Wichita| St. Louis | Columbus)

Travel may become hazardous from the Front Range of Colorado and New Mexico into the Plains and Midwest this weekend, and parts of the interior Northeast Monday morning. Regardless of rain or snow, significant flight delays are possible in the major Northeast hubs Monday.

Plan ahead if you have travel plans in these areas, and check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for updates to this forecast.

Unusually Early Southern Snow?

Typical First Measurable Snow Dates

There already have been two unusually early snows in the South: the post-Halloween event in parts of South Carolina and the southern Appalachians, and some light snow that streaked across the Mid-South on Thursday.

(RECAP: Post-Halloween Southern Snow)

Memphis, Tennessee, picked up 0.1 inch of snow Thursday morning, causing traffic accidents and resulting in the city's earliest measurable snow in any fall-winter season since snow fell on Nov. 7 in 1991. On average, Memphis's first measurable snow comes Jan. 12.

Little Rock, Arkansas, also picked up 0.1 inch of snow Thursday, its third-earliest measurable snow on record behind Nov. 2 in 1951 and Nov. 9 in 1892.

If the weekend forecast verifies, this mid-November measurable snowfall (at least 0.1 inch) would be quite a bit earlier than average from Missouri and Arkansas to southern Kansas and Oklahoma.

December is typically when the season's first snow piles up from St. Louis to Wichita to Oklahoma City.

This early snow would not be unprecedented, however.

The earliest-in-season measurable snow on record in Amarillo, Texas, is Oct. 8 (1970). In Oklahoma City, that earliest date is Oct. 26 (1913) while in St. Louis, it's Oct. 20 (1916).

An inch of snow has fallen as early as Nov. 2 (1991) in Oklahoma City and Nov. 5 (1951) in St. Louis.

(MORE: Record Earliest First Snow Where You Live)

Nevertheless, Oklahoma's capital city hasn't had a November with more than an inch of snow since 2006 and has had only 17 Novembers dating to 1893 with an inch of snow or more.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Photos of Winter Storm Astro Nov. 9-11, 2014

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