At a Glance

Officials are constantly monitoring glaciers near Huaraz, Peru, as they continue to melt.Tens of thousands are at risk, officials say.A 2014 study noted that up to 39 billion gallons of water could be displaced into the city that is home to about 150,000 people.

A warming climate is putting tens of thousands of residents livingin Huaraz, Peru,in peril from possible outburst flooding.

Researchers say a massive chunk of ice could fall from glaciers teetering above the city into Lake Palcacocha, which could then propel that is home to 150,000, the Guardian reported.

A 2014 wave modelingstudy by the University of Texas found that a massive chunk of ice falling into the lake from glaciers resting on Mount Pucaranra in the Andes' Cordillera Blanca range could displace up to .

A similaroutburst flooding event occurred in Huaraz in 1941, killing approximately 5,000 people.

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Authorities fear that a large mountain glacier outburst flood triggered by a warming climate would lead to many more casualties in Huaraz than the 1941flood, particularly in light of the increased population in the area.

"There are around 50,000 people living in the danger zone," Noah Walker-Crawford, a social anthropologist from Manchester University, told the Guardian. "According to the authorities’ estimates, even if you were able to warn the people, there could still be about 20,000 fatalities."

A satellite view of Huaraz, Peru, and Lake Palcacocha surrounded by glaciers.

(NASA/GSFC/MITI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team)

One risk management official told the Guardian that residents would have about 30 minutes to evacuate.

The greatest risk for calving events in the region typically occurs from late May through July, the driest and sunniest months of the year.

"Avalanches and calving events are frequent occurrences at this lake, and both should be especially active in the late May-July period, which tends to be the dry season, hence mainly sunny, ," Jeff Kargel, a planetary scientist at the University of Arizona, told GlacierHub. "The air temperature doesn't vary much throughout the year, this being deep into the tropics, so variations in sunny versus cloudy days are the main seasons."

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In June 2017, chunks of ice toppled into the lake,sending 10-footmeant to prevent outburst floods, according to a report by the Earth Institute, Columbia University.

Marcelo Somos Valenzuela of the Northeast Climate Science Center at the University of Massachusetts led a study published in 2016 in the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. He noted that"there is , scientists and specialists that Lake Palcacocha represents a glacier lake outburst flood hazard with potentially high destructive impact on Huaraz."

The study noted, however, that the most likely scenario is smaller calving events like the one in June 2017that will "produce significantly less inundation."