A significant, long-lived winter storm is now becoming more certain for parts of the snow-fatigued Northeast.
The Weather Channel named this system Winter Storm Marcus on Friday afternoon. The information below is no longer being updated. For the latest information,
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Potential East Coast setup early next week.
This storm will have a different flavor than the past few storms, but still will be a major headache if you have travel plans.
A train of potent disturbances in the jet stream will sweep south of the Canadian border into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Eventually, a more pronounced southward dip in the jet stream will carve out near the East Coast kicking off the work week.
Cold air near the surface over much of the Northeast will be reinforced by three factors: 1) eastern Canadian high pressure nosing southward early next week, 2) the already refrigerated air mass behind an arriving arctic front late this week and 3) the existing heavy snowpack not allowing temperatures to rebound much late this week.
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This should then force low pressure to slide off the East Coast. This more offshore track, without explosive development, would favor prolonged snow over a significant swath of the Northeast, in particular, much of New England and New York state.
Current Radar
Sunday Night Forecast
Monday's Forecast
Tuesday's Forecast
Forecast Snowfall Next 24 Hours
(Note: This is additional snow on top of what has already fallen.)
Computer Model Snowfall Projections
(Snowfall projections from two major computer models for selected cities through next Tuesday. This gives a general idea of how much snow may fall from the upcoming multi-day event.)
Friday night - Saturday:This 3-4 day long snow event begins late Friday night, as an initial strip of light snow sweeps from northern Minnesota over the northern Great Lakes. This initial stripe of snow then quickly spreads into New York state and New England Saturday.
Behind that first snow stripe, a second more expansive stripe of light to moderate snow will once again blanket northern Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes Saturday, quickly spreading central and Upstate New York and New England Saturday evening.
Sunday - Sunday night:Snow will gradually taper off (except for lingering lake-enhanced bands in spots) in the western Great Lakes, but will persist and may become heavy, at times, in New England and New York state later in the day. South of the area of snow, a thin band of freezing rain is possible from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, possibly again including parts of the New York City metro. A chilly rain is expected from the Ohio Valley generally near or south of the Mason-Dixon line. East to northeast winds will intensify along the coast of eastern New England, leading to reduced visibility in snow.
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Monday - Monday night:Snow continues and may become heavy, at times, in New England, Upstate and central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Any freezing rain from Sunday will have changed over to snow. Strong winds continue in coastal New England, contributing to blowing/drifting snow, reduced visibility, at least some minor coastal flooding particularly in areas vulnerable after Winter Storms Juno and Linus, and possibly some sporadic power outages. Snow may begin to taper off from west to east Monday night.
Tuesday:Snow will end in Maine early in the day. Otherwise, a cold and breezy day as the area digs out from this snowstorm.
Now, let's hit on potential snowfall amounts.
With such a prolonged period of snow, accumulations may add up to over a foot in some areas. If our current thinking is correct, though, the snow will fall at a slow enough clip that road crews should be able to keep up with it. Nonetheless, many folks may be doing a lot of shoveling orsnowblowing to keep walkways and driveways clear.
The last maps at right are our latest forecast snowfall totals, and computer model forecast snowfall amounts through Tuesday, Feb. 10, for selected cities. Keep in mind that forecasting snowfall is quite challenging, especially beyond two or three days into the future, so these are rough guidelines, subject to change as we draw nearer to the storm in time.
Greatest snow accumulations: Western, central, Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, southern Maine, Massachusetts (except far southeast), northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island. See map at left for latest forecast snow totals.
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Light-moderate accumulations:Far northern Minnesota, far northern Wisconsin, northern Michigan, far northern Pennsylvania, far northern New Jersey, northern NYC metro.
Little-no accumulation:Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly, southern NYC metro, Baltimore, Washington, D.C.
Once again, the will be a bit of a challenge, with a large north-south snowfall gradient from up the Hudson Valley (more snow) to the five boroughs and Newark (less snow).
As mentioned earlier, warmer air riding up over subfreezing air near the surface may generate a stripe of sleet and/or freezing rain from parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend.
We're not expecting an ice storm with numerous power outages and tree damage. However, at least some trace ice accumulations may lead to dangerous travel on untreated roads this weekend in these areas.
Expect travel impacts in the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday, spreading into the Northeast Saturday through Tuesday. Both the Monday morning and evening commutes will be impacted in Boston, Syracuse and Hartford. Flight delays and cancellations are possible from late Sunday into early Tuesday at Boston-Logan and the three major NYC area airports.
Check back for updates and more details on this forecast over the next few days.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Winter Storm Linus Photos
Pedestrians navigate the snow, ice and puddles along a Manhattan street on Feb. 2, 2015 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)