Florida is notorious for hurricanes, but the northern half of Florida’s east coast – where Hurricane Dorian could arrive this week – has had surprisingly few destructive landfalls.

As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center was that Dorian could make landfall around Monday morning on the east-central coast of Florida as a Category 3 storm. (This forecast is subject to change.)

In NOAA’s database going back to 1851, there is no record of any hurricane having made landfall at Category 3, 4, or 5 strength on Florida's Atlantic coast from Fort Pierce north to the Georgia border.

The northernmost major landfall on Florida’s east coast was from Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, which struck as a Category 3 near Stuart, Florida, with top winds of 120 mph.

Satellite image of Hurricane Jeanne moving toward the eastern coast of Florida on Sept. 25, 2004. The fourth hurricane to pummel the southeastern state in six weeks during 2004, Jeanne knocked out power to over a million people along the Atlantic coast. Jeanne is the furthest-north major hurricane on record to make landfall along Florida's Atlantic coast.

(HO/AFP/Getty Images)

At a Glance

Hurricane Dorian is projected to approach Florida's central or northeast Atlantic coast this weekend. No major hurricane has been recorded on Florida's Atlantic coast north of Fort Pierce.The angle of Florida's northern Atlantic coast helps to reduce hurricane landfall risk.Storms are often starting to recurve as they reach the latitude of northern Florida.

Further north, the strongest Florida east coast landfalling hurricane in modern times was Hurricane Dora, which came ashore in 1964 near St. Augustine as a top-end Category 2 (sustained winds of 110 mph).

In 1979, Hurricane David moved alongside a large section of the east-central Florida coast while at Category 2 strength, packing winds of 100 mph. The strongest part of David was its offshore (right-hand) side, though.

Hurricane Matthew also hugged the east coast of Florida in 2016, moving northward while centered about 30-40 miles offshore. Matthew weakened from Category 3 strength east of Vero Beach to Category 2 strength east of Jacksonville.

As with David, Matthew’s strongest winds were on its offshore (right-hand) side. However, a damaging storm surge of 5 to 7 feet occurred in northeast Florida, including record-high surge values at Mayport and along the St. Johns River.

The Nassau Hurricane of 1928 made landfall at New Smyrna Beach as a Category 2, with 105-mph sustained winds.

Major hurricane landfalls on Florida's Atlantic coast, including the Florida Keys, in data extending back to 1851.

Geography Works Against Strong Hurricanes in Northeast Florida

As shown in the graphic above, a number of major hurricanes have struck the southeast Florida coast.

This section of coastline is ideally situated to intercept hurricanes moving west and northwest from the key breeding grounds of the Bahamas, the eastern Caribbean and the deep Atlantic tropics.

As hurricanes gain latitude, though, they are more likely to recurve toward the northwest or north. This reduces the odds of a hurricane moving onshore along the northeast coast of Florida.

The angle of the peninsula also helps to reduce the number of strong hurricane landfalls on the northeast Florida coast. The coast angles toward the north-northeast from Key Largo to Palm Beach, but then toward the north-northwest from Palm Beach to Jacksonville.

As a result, any hurricane approaching the northeast Florida coast needs to be moving northwest or west in order to make a direct hit.

In contrast, even a northward-moving storm can run aground on the southeast-facing coastlines of the Carolinas.

The catastrophic 1898 Georgia hurricane made landfall on northern Cumberland Island, only about 10 miles north of the Georgia-Florida state line. The worst of this hurricane was felt in Georgia on the storm’s more dangerous right-hand side, but a 12-foot storm surge was recorded at Fernandina Beach, Florida.

Other Types of Northeast Florida Hurricane Impacts

Another way a hurricane can affect northeast Florida is when a system from the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves northeast across the peninsula. While such storms lose strength as they pass over land, they can still pack a punch.

Heavy damage is seen to the Windmill Village retirement community in Punta Gorda, on Florida's southwest coast, on August 22, 2004. Hurricane Charley slammed ashore as a Category 4 but had weakened to a Category 1 by the time it moved offshore near Daytona Beach.

(Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Hurricane Charley, which made landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 4 storm in 2004, maintained Category 1 strength and caused significant damage further inland through the Orlando area and even until it moved off Florida’s east coast near Daytona Beach.

Even hurricanes that remain on the west side of Florida can have significant impacts on the Atlantic coast. In 2017, Hurricane Irma moved along the western Florida peninsula from south to north, coming ashore at Marco Island as a Category 3 storm but weakening to tropical storm strength in northwest Florida.

On the other side of the state, storm surge from Irma together with runoff from heavy rains led to some of the worst flooding in Jacksonville history.

Keep in mind that the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale is only one measure of a hurricane's danger. Even a hurricane weaker than Category 3 can pack dangerous storm surge, and tropical-storm-force winds can be enough to bring down trees and power lines.

The bottom line: every hurricane needs to be taken seriously.

Thanks to Jon Erdman at weather.com for graphics with this article, and to Dennis Feltgen (National Hurricane Center) and Hugh Cobb (retired, NHC) for background information.