At a Glance

A strong El Niño is in place. Past strong El Niños have had a squelching influence on the hurricane season's last month.That's due to a couple of factors resulting from a stronger El Niño.

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P​ast strong El Niños, such as the one currently in place, have made it difficult to generate a tropical storm in November, the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

E​l Niño's status: As NOAA reported in its monthly update on Nov. 9, . This warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator is important because it can influence weather patterns around the globe, including the tropics.

A​ typical November: The last month of hurricane season generates one storm every 1 to 2 years, on average. November storms tend to form in the western Caribbean Sea, the southwestern Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas or off the southeast U.S. coast, or the central Atlantic.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Areas of past tropical development in November.

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

S​quashing effect: To examine the potential influence of this El Niño, we searched NOAA's historical hurricane database for systems that first became tropical or subtropical storms in November, then went on to become hurricanes and Category 3 or stronger hurricanes from 1950 through 2022. We did that for all El Niños, all stronger El Niños, and also for its opposite, La Niña, as well as Novembers which were neutral (neither El Niño, nor La Niña in place).

T​he results weren't surprising, but still impressive as a contrast.

O​nly 10 systems first became storms in November during El Niños since 1950, half the number that did so in La Niña Novembers.

W​hen we consider only Novembers with strong El Niños (at least 2.7 degree Fahrenheit temperature anomalies), only three systems became storms during the month, only one of which managed to become a hurricane, Kate in 2015.

As senior meteorologist discussed in a previous piece, .

The number of systems that first became tropical or subtropical storms in November, then went onto become hurricanes, then Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in all El Niño Novembers (yellow bars), stronger El Niño Novembers (red bars), La Niña Novembers (blue bars) and Novembers without either El Niño or La Niña (neutral; gray bars) from 1950 through 2022.

(Data: NOAA; Bar graph: Infogram)

W​hat those past November El Niño tracks looked like: The map below shows the tracks of the 10 El Niño November storms in the first image, followed by the lonely three stronger El Niño November tracks.

N​ote the lack of activity in the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, particularly for the stronger El Niño Novembers.

A​ccording to NOAA's database, , doing so in Florida as a tropical storm. Hurricane Ida approached the northern Gulf Coast in November 2009, but then fizzled before moving ashore, though it would later help spin up a destructive East Coast storm.

(First image) The 10 tracks of systems that first became tropical or subtropical storms in November during an El Niño from 1950-2022. (Second image) The three tracks of systems that did so in November during a strong El Niño since 1950.

W​hy the El Niño squashing: The typical effect of a stronger El Niño is to boost shearing, westerly winds aloft over the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico that's hostile to any system trying to develop.

That's in addition to a sharp increase in wind shear near the mainland U.S. as the colder months settle in.

S​tronger El Niños can also produce over parts of the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the thunderstorms that are building blocks of tropical storms.

Current Wind Shear, Satellite Image

(Areas of clouds are shown in white. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.)

T​he disclaimers: As financial planners often say, past returns don't guarantee future results.

I​n this case, every El Niño, and its effect on the atmosphere, is different. And El Niño isn't the only influence on the weather pattern.

T​hree storms did manage to form in past Novembers during strong El Niños.

B​ut if past history is an indication, it's an uphill battle to generate one this time of year in these conditions.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ How The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Measure Up

-​ 6 Changes A Stronger El Niño Could Bring This Winter

-​ Snowfall And El Niño

-​ How El Niño Got Its Name

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.

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