At a Glance

The Weather Company and Colorado State University have issued their outlooks for the season. The 2023 hurricane season outlook is more challenging than usual.That's because there are a couple of conflicting signals.First, an El Niño is increasingly likely, which tends to tamp down the number of storms.However, Atlantic Ocean water is very warm in most areas, which could enhance storms.

Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletterto get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has more uncertainty than usual due to a couple of key factors, according to a just-released outlook.

The Weather Company, an Business, and Atmospheric G2 are forecasting 15 named storms, seven of which will become hurricanes and three of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their initial outlook for 2023 released Thursday.

T​hat matches the 30-year average tally for hurricanes and is close to the average number of named storms in a hurricane season.

C​olorado State University also issued its Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These are slightly reduced numbers compared to both the 30-year average and the forecast from The Weather Company.

A​ "near-average" hurricane season might not grab your attention, but there are two competing factors that may battle for control this year, as Todd Crawford, Ed Vallee and James Caron of AG2 put it.

I​f one of those factors dominates, the hurricane season could look quite different than average.

A​ Developing El Niño

The first signal we're watching isn't in the Atlantic Ocean, but rather the waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

During the past three hurricane seasons, these Pacific equatorial waters were cooler than average – a condition known as La Niña. B​ut that long-lasting , and this patch of water is now warming toward its counterpart, El Niño.

A​s of mid-April, a large majority of forecast models suggested an El Niño is likely to develop, possibly as soon as this summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center assigned a will be in place by August through October, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The reason this strip of water far from the Atlantic Basin matters is that it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

In El Niño hurricane seasons, stronger shearing winds often occur over at least the Caribbean Sea and some adjacent parts of the Atlantic Basin. This tends to limit the number and intensity of storms and hurricanes, especially if the El Niño is stronger, as .

T​he AG2 forecast team also noted a tendency in El Niño hurricane seasons for fewer Gulf of Mexico storms and more storms to either curl north, then northeast out into the open Atlantic Ocean or to impact parts of the East Coast.

T​hat's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.

A typical "recurve" pattern that can be in place in hurricane season.

T​he Atlantic Ocean Is Very Warm

Another factor in this outlook might have the opposite effect of El Niño in 2023.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

B​ut, according to the AG2 forecast team, Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate well to a hurricane season's activity.

And much of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than usual for spring, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern Atlantic.

This map shows how far above (yellow, orange and red contours) and below (blue and purple contours) average the Atlantic Ocean was on April 10, 2023.

(NOAA Coral Reef Watch)

What grabbed the AG2 team's attention was how close the overall warmth is right now compared to spring anomalies prior to the prolific .

"(It) certainly gives one pause when relying on the potential El Niño event to keep the season quiet," wrote Crawford and the AG2 team.

K​lotzbach notes that the forecast from Colorado State University if water temperatures were closer to average due to El Niño.

P​repare The Same Every Hurricane Season

What these outlooks cannot tell you is whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.

A season with fewer storms or hurricanes can still deliver the one storm that makes a season destructive or devastating.

In 2015, one of the strongest El Niños on record reduced the hurricane tally to four that season. However, one of those was , which devastated the central Bahamas.

In this aerial photo, homes are seen under the floodwaters caused by Hurricane Joaquin in the Southern area of Long Island, Bahamas, Monday, Oct. 5, 2015.

(AP Photo/Tim Aylen)

And i​t doesn't take a hurricane to be impactful, especially regarding rainfall flooding.

Also in the 2015 season, T​ropical Storm Erika was ripped apart by wind shear and dry air near the Dominican Republic. But before that happened, it triggered deadly and destructive flooding in Dominica.

These outlooks serve as a reminder that the time to be ready for hurricanes is now. .

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM:

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, .