At a Glance

A total of 14named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes are expected this season.This is nearthe 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.The updated outlook was released Tuesday by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season may see fewer storms and hurricanes than last year, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be any less dangerous, according to an updated outlook from the .

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

The group, led by , calls for a total of 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which is from CSU's initial outlook in early April. This is on par with the outlooks issued in May from NOAA and The Weather Company, an Business.

NOAA expects nine to 15 named storms during the season, including four to eight hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. The Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes this season. Both The Weather Company and CSU outlooks include , which made a brief appearance to the southwest of Bermuda May 20-21.

All three outlooks are near, or slightly above, the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the.

Last year, 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes .

Numbers of Atlantic Basin named storms (those that attain at least tropical or subtropical storm strength), hurricanes and hurricanes of Category 3 intensity forecast by Colorado State University, NOAA and The Weather Company, an Business, compared to the 30-year average.

(Note: The Weather Company and Colorado State University forecasts include storms that have already formed.)

The CSU outlook is based on an extended-range early-June statistical prediction scheme that was formulated using , including hurricane seasons exhibiting similar features of sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans.

"The tropical Atlantic has undergone slight anomalous warming and is now characterized by near-average sea-surface temperatures," said Klotzbach. "There is considerable uncertainty as to what the configuration of Atlantic sea-surface temperatures will look like for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season."

As of June 4, the subtropical Atlantic was quite warm, while the far North Atlantic was cooler than average.

Klotzbach noted there is considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of the current El Niño, which is forecast to persist and typically suppresses the intensity of the season because of increased wind shear – the change in wind speed with height – in the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear is detrimental to either the development or maintenance of tropical cyclones.

"We currently anticipate that current weak El Niño event conditions will persist, but some anomalous cooling in recent weeks weakens our confidence in this assessment," said Klotzbach.

The CSU team identified five analog hurricane seasons that the 2019 hurricane season might resemble: 1990, 1991, 2012, 2014 and 2018. Each of these years had similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions in April and May, the team said.

Though the officialAtlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, occasionally we can see storms develop outside those months. We've already seen that this year with brief appearance in late May. This was also the case in the previous two seasons with May 2018's and April 2017's .

(MORE: Hurricane Season Has Started Early 5 Years in a Row)

The Weather Company also noted a number of factors contributing to its outlook, including sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño and other teleconnections, statistical computer forecast model guidance and past hurricane seasons exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions.

Here are some questions and answers about what these outlooksmean.

What Does This Mean for the United States?

There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and United States landfalls in any given season. One or more of the 14 named storms predicted to develop this season could hit the U.S., or none could at all. That's why residents of the coastal United States should prepare each year no matter the forecast.

The 1992 and 1983 hurricane seasons are visceral examples of why you need to be prepared regardless of the seasonal forecast.

The 1992 season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane.

In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one of them was. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston/Galveston, Texas, area and caused a severe loss of life.

In contrast, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was quite active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the U.S.

In other words, a season can deliver many storms but have little impact, or deliver few storms but with major impacts.

Named storm tracks in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The colors correspond to intensities of each named storm during that section of the track, except for the black sections, which correspond to either a remnant or the time during which a system was a tropical wave before forming into a depression or storm.

The U.S. averages one-to-two hurricane landfalls each season, according to.

The past two hurricane seasons have been particularly destructive.

In 2018, four named storms impacted the U.S. coast, most notably hurricanes and within a month of each other.

Seven named storms impacted theU.S. in 2017. Most notably were hurricanes , and , which batteredTexas, Florida and Puerto Rico, respectively.

(MORE: Three Category 4 Hurricanes Made a U.S. Landfall in 2017)

In 2016, five named storms impacted the southeastern U.S. coast. The most notable of the bunch was, with its powerful scraping of the coast and subsequent inland rainfall flooding.

In the past three seasons, eight hurricanes were so destructive and/or deadly from further use by the World Meteorological Organization.

The number of U.S. landfalls had been well below average over the previous 10 years before these seasons.

The 10-year running total of U.S. hurricane landfalls from 2006 through2015was seven,according to a meteorologist at the National Weather Service. This was a record low for any 10-year period dating to 1850, and considerably lower than dating to 1850,Lamers added.

What's more, none of the U.S. landfalls from 2006 through 2015 involved major hurricanes.

Bottom line: it's impossible to know for certain if a U.S. hurricane strike, or multiple strikes, will occur this season. Keep in mind, however, that even a weak tropical storm hitting the U.S. can cause major impacts, particularly if it moves slowly and produces flooding rainfall.

How Much of a Role Will El Niño Play?

One hurricane season ingredient worth watching is El Niño: the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean.

as of mid-May and it's expected to continue through the summer ahead, possibly even into the fall, according to NOAA. This includes the heart of the hurricane season.

"El Niño conditions are expected to persist or, at worst, slowly weaken over the next six months, which should act to help suppress activity a bit," said , chief meteorologist at The Weather Company.

If El Niño persists in the weeks ahead, The Weather Company may lower the hurricane season outlook's numbers a touch in the next update.

(MORE: Here's What Typically Happens Early in the Hurricane Season)

Above-average sea-surface temperatures, depicted by the orange shadings above the red arrows, are present over parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

(NOAA)

El Niño tends to produce areas of stronger wind shear – the change in wind speed with height – and sinking air in parts of the Atlantic Basin, which are both hostile to either the development or maintenance of tropical cyclones.

With the major exception of Michael, this wind shear was a factor in keeping the Caribbean Sea rather quiet in the 2018 hurricane season, as evidenced by the relative dearth of Caribbean tracks in the 2018 track map above.

The effects of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean.

But there are several important caveats to this.

Stronger-than-average wind shear was present in the Caribbean Sea in 2018 without an official El Niño. The wind shear suppressed development in the Caribbean but not elsewhere in the Atlantic.

Any Other Factors in Play?

El Niño is only one of several influences on the atmospheric circulation. Water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean have a much more direct role in tropical cyclone development on the Atlantic side of North America.

Current water temperatures across the North Atlantic Basin show cooler-than-average waters in the far northern and far eastern Atlantic and in various parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Warmer-than-average waters are widespread off the mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts of the U.S. Water temperatures are generally near average in the eastern tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.

April 29, 2019, Atlantic Basin sea-surface temperature anomalies. Warmer-than-average waters, including off the mid-Atlantic and southeastern coasts of the U.S., are shown by the orange and red contours. Colder-than-average waters, including various parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, are shown by the blue contours. Yellow contours depict waters that are generally near average.

(NOAA)

Crawford noted that sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic are currently very similar to those observed during the last three years, which were all active hurricane seasons. However, he cautioned that the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies in April matched Aprils from previous years that went on to have inactive hurricane seasons.

"On the other hand, there is a large pool of warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures off the southeastern U.S. coast, which may again help to favor 'homegrown' systems that develop closer to the U.S., in a similar manner to 2018," said Crawford.

Due to these contrasting factors, Crawford admitted this year's hurricane season outlook is a bit less confident than in previous years.

It isn't the sea-surface temperature anomalies that allow hurricanes to intensify, however. Rather, it's the actual heat of the oceans.

Water temperatures of 80 degrees or higher are generally supportive oftropical storm and hurricane formation and development.

Much of the tropics stay at or above this temperature for most of the year.

So why bring it up if favorable conditions are always around?

If sea-surface temperatures in the main development region (MDR) between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are warmer than average, we often get more than the average number of tropical storms and hurricanes from this region. Conversely, below-average sea-surface temperatures can lead to fewer tropical storms than if waters were warmer.

Warmer waters in the MDR allow tropical waves, the formative engines that can become tropical storms, to get closer to the Caribbean and United States.

Dry air and wind shear are two other factors that can be detrimental to tropical storm or hurricane development.

There was prohibitive dry air and/or wind shear during a significant part of the and seasons, but El Niño was nowhere to be found.

Americans and the Hurricane Season

The Weather Company surveyed 2,200 adults across the United States and gained some interesting insights about Americans and the hurricane season.

-Americans believe the weather has gotten more severe, but four in 10 have no plans to handle an emergency.

-Only 31 percent of Americans said they would always evacuate if ordered to do so.

-Only 16 percent of Americans have a preparedness kit packed in preparation for a severe weather event.

provides a list of tips to help you prepare for a hurricane. Some of them could end up saving your life.