A new study has found New Zealand's weather in the upcoming months could tell the future for the southwestern U.S.The New Zealand Index found the southwestern Pacific's July and August weather could signal what happens in the Southwest the next winter.The scientists say the signal is even stronger than the El Niño pattern, which has been used much the same way for years.
Move aside, El Niño – a team of researchers believe they've found an even better way to predict future precipitation in the southwestern United States.
The study in the online journal Nature Communications concluded temperature anomalies around New Zealand in July and August could accurately signal how much precipitation the southwestern U.S. might have in the subsequent winter.
In other words, changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressures in the southwestern Pacific Ocean could very likely tell us if the next winter will be rainier or drier than average in Southern California, Arizona, Nevada and Utah.
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"The interhemispheric teleconnection that we have discovered promises earlier and more accurate prediction of winter precipitation ," Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of California, IrvineDistinguished Professor of civil and environmental engineering and co-author of the study, said in a release.
A farmer heads out to feed his stock during a snowstorm near Lumsden on July 12, 2017 in Invercargill, New Zealand.
(Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
Named the New Zealand Index by the study's authors, this new method was discovered during analyses of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressures across the planet from 1950 to 2015. Not only was the pattern found – it had more reliability than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, especially in recent cycles.
The scientists think the El Niño method might be less reliable in the most recent years studied because of climate change. If that's the case, the researchers hope the New Zealand Index will step in and prove to be a reliable replacement, because knowing how much precipitation is bound for the region months in advance is a huge advantage for local economies and food production,National Science Foundation’s Water Sustainability and Climate program Tom Torgersen said in the release.
And in a region where drought is always on the mind, getting ahead of the next big dry period is always key.
"Knowing how much rain to expect in the coming winter is crucial for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region,"Foufoula-Georgiou said in the release.