At a Glance

Much of the critical preparation for storms — upgrades and improvements to forecasting models and training exercises — occurs during the off-season. Much of the NHC staff continues to work without pay.But workers with other agencies that work closely with the NHC to improve forecast models are furloughed.

Hurricane preparedness is another victim of the government shutdown that is now in its third week.

While hurricane season runs from June through November, much of the critical preparation for storms — upgrades and improvements to forecasting models and training exercises — occurs during the off-season.

"People keep saying it doesn’t matter because hurricane season is so far away — dead wrong," Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, on Wednesday. "In our annual plan we have people working on many different things and we push the schedule to the maximum. These lost 3 weeks can’t simply be absorbed — something will be dropped."

(PODCAST: How the Shutdown Affects FEMA and the Hurricane Center)

While much of the NHC staff continues to work without pay because they are considered "essential" during the shutdown, other agencies, including the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), and researchers that work closely with the NHC to improve models are furloughed.

Blake pointed out that the EMC is the "workhorse for all operational weather models" but with only one of 200 employees of that agency working, they are effectively shut down.

"NHC can’t do much without that agency fully staffed," he said.

Blake also noted that nearly all federal employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA have missed the invaluable American Meteorological Society's annual conference taking place this week in Phoenix and called it "a lost opportunity to share ideas, present work and inspire the next class of students."

The shutdown also forced the cancelation of an intensive hurricane training program in collaboration with the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

"As the flagship course for training non-meteorologists how to use NHC/NWS/FEMA products — its absence will hurt U.S. hurricane preparedness," he wrote.

Hurricane preparedness is not the only aspect of weather that is made more vulnerable by the shutdown.

The EMC, for example, also the entire suite of global forecast models, including the Global Forecast System model (GFS) are being impacted. The GFS is used by meteorologists at the National Weather Service to forecast and warn about everything, including storms, tornado outbreaks, winter storm systems and, of course, hurricanes.

The GFS was slated to get a significant makeover known as the FV3 upgrade, next month, NOAA noted.

With no end in sight to the shutdown, particularly with the seemingly uncompromising stalemate between President Donald Trump and the Democratic leadership over funding for a border wall, it's unclear when that upgrade might occur.

Jon Erdman, senior meteorologist at weather.com, echoed Blake's sentiments on the impacts of the shutdown, noting that there are numerous functions within the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service that are not being carried out during the shutdown that can have serious impacts on future development and forecasts.

"Weather has no off-season," he said.