Snow and ice may take aim on a swath of states from the Midwest and South to the Northeast early next week as a new weather system develops in the central states and heads east. Though many states could see wintry weather from this potential storm, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the details, which is not uncommon this far in advance.

Potential Snow and Ice Setup

The first ingredient in this wintry setup is the Arctic air being ushered in by strong high pressure. This will bring the coldest temperatures of the winter so far to the Northeast this weekend.

(FORECAST:)

The southerly wind flow on the western flank of that high-pressure system in combination with upper-level energy and surface low pressure to its west will help pull moisture north into the cold air, resulting in the possibility of snow and ice in the Midwest and South first. Then the area of low pressure may bring wintry weather to parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Snow and Ice Setup

Upper-level energy and surface low pressure push east into cold air supplied by high pressure in the East as moisture returns north.

There are still a pair of key uncertainties in the forecast at this time:

The severity of any snow or ice in the Southeast depends on how far south and how long sufficient cold air (32 degrees or below) will remain in place and how much moisture moves into that cold air.Forecast guidance still has key disagreements on the exact track of the low-pressure system, which is common this far out in time. The track of this low will determine the relative amounts of rain, snow or ice.

Now that we've outlined the uncertainty, let's take a look at the our latest forecast. Keep in mind, however, that the forecast you see on weather.com or on your mobile app will likely change the next few days, so be sure to check back often for the latest updates.

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Sunday-Sunday Night

Areas to watch:A broad area of light to moderate snow will fall from the Lower Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest. Some sleet or freezing rain is possible in southern Missouri, northern Arkansas and west Tennessee. That area of snow then spreads into the rest of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians and Piedmont of the Carolinas Sunday night. Some freezing rain is possible on the southern end of that precipitation shield Sunday night in the southern Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas.Potential impacts:Slick roads (particularly bridges/overpasses) possible due to sleet/ice accumulations in Missouri/Arkansas. Ice accumulations look light enough, for now, to avoid widespread power outage, tree damage impacts. Typical slippery roads in light/moderate snow areas.FORECAST: | |

Sunday's Forecast

Sunday Night's Forecast

Monday

Areas to watch: Snow spreads from the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic states. Moisture may overrun subfreezing air near the surface, leading to the potential of freezing rain and sleet for a period of time in the Piedmont from parts of Virginia and western/central North Carolina to upstate South Carolina and north Georgia. How far south and how long the sufficient cold remains in place will dictate the extent of this icing potential.Potential impacts: Accumulating snow possible in the Ohio Valley, Appalachians and mid-Atlantic will lead to slippery roads. The possibility of icing in the above-mentioned areascould at least cause slick travel conditions and, if subfreezing surface temperatures persist longer, could lead to some tree damage and power outages.FORECAST: | |

Monday's Forecast

Monday Night-Tuesday

This portion of the forecast remains uncertain, and depends on the track and strength of any low-pressure system that moves through the East.Right now, it appears the greatest chance for significant snowfall accumulations will be northwest of the I-95 corridor in the Northeast, from the Appalachians to western Pennsylvania, western, central and Upstate New York.Locations from Boston to Washington, D.C. may see a mixture of precipitation types before potentially transitioning to plain rain.Some ice may linger in the Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas before possibly changing to rain.Once again, this forecast remains very uncertain, so check back for updates the next few days.FORECAST: | |

Monday Night's Forecast

Tuesday's Forecast

Additional Snowfall Tuesday

(A look at the additional snowfall expected Tuesday.)

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(Ken Libbrecht/SnowCrystals.com)