Newly named is increasingly likely to affect a swath of the East beginning later this week. Here are five things you need to know about the storm.
A comparison of model forecasts from Monday's runs of the American, European and Canadian weather forecast models. As shown here, they all depict a strong low pressure system expected to be near the U.S. East Coast on Saturday evening, Jan. 23, 2016.
While there are differences in the details, which ultimately matter for impacts at any location, all of the major computer forecast models forecast a strong low-pressure system to develop later this week over the eastern half of the U.S.
And even in the details, the models are in surprisingly strong agreement on some of the basics. Most of them depict a strengthening low-pressure center near the Mid-Atlantic coast, somewhere over or close to Virginia, by the start of the weekend. And most of them take the center of low pressure on a northeasterly track that keeps it south and east of Long Island and the New England coast.
The models agree that Friday through Sunday morning is when this storm will have its biggest impact on the East Coast.
So at this point, the story is less about whether or not there will be a storm, and more about what exactly this storm is going to do.
This infrared satellite image from Monday, Jan. 18, 2016, shows a fairly tame-looking disturbance over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. This is the disturbance that computer forecast models say will turn into a strong low pressure system and potentially major winter storm by the time it reaches the East Coast late this week.
One key to improving confidence in the details of the forecast is getting a handle on the disturbance that's expected to spawn the East Coast storm.
That disturbance tracked across the Pacific Ocean, only just coming onshore late Tuesday. Now that it has reached land, we'll be able to add weather balloons, weather observations from the ground, and other observations to the satellite data we heavily rely on for systems over the open ocean. These data all feed into the computer models that inform our weather forecasts.
In theory, that should improve our confidence in the forecast into Wednesday and beyond – as should the continually dwindling amount of time between the present and the storm's development. However, occasionally new information leads to new disagreements between forecast models, so check your forecast periodically as we learn more about what this disturbance is likely to do.
A neighborhood in Leesburg, Virginia, lies buried in snowfall from the Presidents Day storm on Feb. 18, 2003.
(National Weather Service, Sterling, Virginia)
The last snowstorm to drop at least 12 inches of snow on all of the Northeast's five largest coastal cities – Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. – was the Presidents Day Storm in February 2003.
Though the forecast is by no means set in stone yet, this storm has a reasonably good shot at doing just that. If so, more than 50 million people would be affected by snowfall heavy enough to seriously disrupt travel by road, rail, and air.
Saturday's High Wind Potential
(The strongest forecast winds Saturday are shown by the red and purple contours. The combination of heavy snow plus high winds may trigger numerous power outages and down trees, limbs.)
Signs are pointing to a corridor of very strong easterly or northeasterly winds developing in areas just north of the low-pressure center Friday night through Saturday night or early Sunday.
The winds could be strong enough to snap tree branches or even topple some weaker trees, leading to power outages. Parts of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island and southeast New England have the greatest chance of these high winds.
In addition, some areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will see very heavy wet snow that could also weigh down on trees and power lines, causing some outages. Freezing rain may cause icing concerns across portions of the interior North Carolina and Virginia. Some of these areas could see both high winds and heavy snow or ice, worsening the impacts.
Power outages could eventually affect hundreds of thousands of people as a result of these factors. Since it doesn't hurt to be prepared, you might consider stocking up on batteries and other items today in case you lose power.
Water floods a street on the coast in Scituate, Massachusetts, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2015.
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
The same corridor of winds that could lead to power outages could also cause big problems for parts of the coast.
Depending on the exact track and forward speed of the low-pressure system, there could be a period of very strong winds blowing directly toward the New Jersey shore, Long Island Sound, Friday into Saturday.
There would also be a period of strong, onshore winds blowing toward southeast Massachusetts, including Cape Cod, Nantucket Island and Martha's Vineyard Saturday into Sunday. Those winds would likely pile water toward the coast, leading to storm surge.
The strength, duration and direction of the winds will all play a role in how much water rise – which you may know as "storm surge" – occurs and where, but it's possible that coastal flooding will be more than a minor nuisance with this storm system.
Making matters worse, there's a full moon on Saturday. This is already expected to boost the astronomical high tides several inches higher than other times of the month. Storm surge may raise water levels several feet higher than those in some areas.
Current indications suggest that water levels may remain high for two or three high tide cycles this weekend, prolonging the threat of saltwater flooding at the coast and increasing the impacts of beach erosion from accompanying high surf on exposed stretches of beach.
An unidentified town official helps Greg Longo, left, remove belongings from his house after it was heavily damaged by ocean waves during a winter storm in Marshfield, Mass., Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2015. The storm has punched out a section of the seawall in the coastal town of Marshfield, police said. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)