At a Glance

Canada's cold air reservoir is at its fullest point in February. Contrasts in temperature cause storm systems to intensify. The storm track in February can bring more snow to the Northeast.

February is the peak of winter storm season in the Northeast due to an intersection of big temperature differences, a favorable track and hints of spring.

From 1956 to 2020, almost three-quarters of all Northeast snowstorms attaining a Category 3 or higher rating on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) have occurred in late January or February, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

Of the 34 such storms on that list, a dozen occurred during the first two weeks of February.

Here are a few reasons that the biggest winter storms happen in the shortest month:

Cold, continental air often bottles up in parts of Canada throughout the winter, but this reservoir stocks up in February over the eastern half of Canada.

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"Typically, the lowest temperatures of the season in Eastern Canada and Northern New England occur in late January through early February," said winter weather expert Tom Niziol.

This frigid air is frequently pushed southward by domes of high pressure over Ontario and pulled into the Midwest and East by passing low-pressure systems.

By early February, the Gulf of Mexico also begins to spew its moisture northward.

While this maritime air can be more confined to the South in the depths of winter, additional moisture can be pulled northward by storm systems as they move across the Southeast. This moisture can be pulled into the Northeast where it combines with the cold air and can be turned into snow.

Of course, what good are cold air and Gulf moisture without a storm?

Niziol also said that from February into March, storm tracks associated with the jet stream often begin to shift to a bit more southerly source region.

"When you combine these two factors, it matches up pretty well with the maximum of late January through early March for Northeast snowstorm occurrence."

The Goldilocks zone for winter storms is when they pass near the benchmark, an imaginary point near 40°N and 70°W, or just off the Massachusetts coast.

Storms that trek near this point are close enough to the coast to drop heavy snow along the U.S. East Coast without bringing too much warmth from the Southeast that could turn precipitation into a chilly rain.

Storms that are further out to sea bring only light snow to the coast or even no snow at all while storms that are closer to the coast can bring plain rain to the Interstate 95 corridor.

The benchmark (red dot) is a point in the northwestern Atlantic that brings heavier snow on the populated I-95 corridor in the Northeast when storm systems pass over it.

With this storm track, storm systems get to feed on two sources of energy during February – both of which are related to changes in temperature.

Before storms even get to the coast, low-pressure systems begin to interact with the cold air from Canada and warmer air from the south. This change of temperature is itself a source of energy for storm systems.

The bigger the difference in temperature, the more energy is created. This contrast is usually largest in the early part of the year.

That difference is amplified even more when systems reach the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast where systems interact with the warm, Gulf Stream ocean current that pumps northeastward from the North Carolina coast.

This ocean current brings much warmer air northward during the winter than what the atmosphere is typically capable of.

This contrast between the frigid Canadian air and the warm Gulf Stream can cause low-pressure systems to "bomb out," or rapidly intensify as they move northeastward toward southeastern Canada.

This process can cause heavy snow to form along the coast to the north and west of the storm's center.

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