At a Glance

Eta has moved into the Gulf of Mexico.It will likely meander for several days due to a lack of steering influences.Eta will likely wait until late this week to exit the stage.

Eta has moved into the Gulf of Mexico, where it faces an uncertain future as it slows down and meanders for a time due to a change in its steering.

In the near-term, we expect Eta to track southwestward toward the western tip of Cuba by early Tuesday. That's due to the steering influence from Eta's interaction with an upper-level low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, and an area of high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast.

After that, Eta is expected to lose steering influences, meaning it will slow down significantly or even stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is where the forecast grows increasingly uncertain.

The latest forecast model guidance is showing two general scenarios for what might happen with Eta later this week.

Scenario One

Eta may make a final landfall as a tropical storm somewhere along Florida's Gulf Coast late in the week, as it finally accelerates ahead of an approaching frontal system.

Eta's interaction with dry air and/or wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico should cause it to slowly weaken as it approaches the Gulf Coast in this scenario.

Scenario Two

Another scenario is that Eta tracks northward for a time in the Gulf of Mexico, then pivots back in a westerly direction toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

That's because Eta would initially be pulled northward by the same frontal system mentioned earlier, however, the front does not fully capture Eta and leaves it behind in the Gulf. Eta would then be steered in a westerly direction for a time by high pressure rebuilding off the Southeast coast.

Eta could then eventually succumb to the aforementioned dry air and/or shearing winds later in the week or next weekend over the Gulf or near the northern Gulf Coast.

So, for now, residents along the Gulf Coast should simply monitor the latest forecast for Eta and check back for updates.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, .