At a Glance

A white Christmas is defined as 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25.Areas near the Canadian border and higher Western elevations usually have the best chance.

Christmas is just days away, and we're getting a glimpse at who could wake up to a blanket of snow on the ground this year.

In meteorology, a white Christmas occurs when there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn't have to be snowing on the holiday for that to happen.

Our current white Christmas outlook has the best chance for at least a 1-inch blanket of snow on the ground in the Mountain West, upper Midwest, the northern and eastern Great Lakes, as well as a portion of the interior Northeast and central Appalachians.

Lower chances for a white Christmas exist in other portions of the Northeast, Midwest, southern Appalachians and some of the lower elevations of the West.

White Christmas Forecast

A strong cold front will bring rain that will melt snow already on the ground in parts of the Northeast on Christmas Eve. However, that rain might change to snow in some parts of the interior Northeast by Christmas Eve night. For more details, see the link below.

(MORE: Christmas Week Storm)

This forecast will be updated several times between now and Christmas, so check back for updates.

How Typical Is a White Christmas?

The map below shows the locations with a historical chance of a white Christmas in any given year. The chances are based on climatological averages from 1981 to 2010.

Historical chance of a white Christmas in any given year, based on 1981-2010 data.

(NOAA)

You may be surprised to see there isn't much territory outside the Mountain West, northern New England and the far northern tier where the odds of a white Christmas are better than 50%.

The last two years are good examples of how limited snow cover can be on Christmas morning. Christmas 2019 had the second-lowest snow cover in the Lower 48 in the last 10 years, with experiencing a white Christmas, according to an analysis from the NOHRSC. Two years ago, was the least expansive since 2005, with just 24.6% of the Lower 48 covered in snow.

The lack of snow last year was partly due to relatively mild conditions across much of the U.S. in .

Snow depth on the morning of Dec. 25 on 2017, 2018 and 2019.

(NOAA)

The last two years were also much less than 2017, when had snow on the ground Christmas morning. That year, snow cover was observed across the northern tier as expected, but also reached into portions of the Central Plains, Midwest and Northeast.

On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 has snow on the ground on Christmas, according to 17 years of data compiled by the . Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from 21% in 2003 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009.

Regional Historical Odds

Below, we break down various white Christmas statistics, including the yearly probability, the number of white Christmases in each city's historical record and the last white Christmas. All statistics and data are courtesy of the National Weather Service.

The annual probability is based on the period of record for that location.

Northeast

The most snow on the ground in Albany (in 1966) and Buffalo, New York (in 2001), on Christmas morning, was 19 inches. New York City has seen up to 8 inches on the ground on Christmas (in 1912), while 7 inches is the top snow depth in Washington D.C. (in 2009).

Last Christmas, just an inch of snow was on the ground in Syracuse, New York. Albany recorded only a trace of snow, meaning it was not an official white Christmas last year.

Burlington, Vermont, and Caribou, Maine, have seen more than 30 inches of snow on the ground in Christmases past. In 2019, Caribou experienced a white Christmas with a snow depth of 4 inches, while Burlington did not, as they only had a trace of snow on the ground and missed the mark to qualify as a white Christmas.

The record snow depth in Boston on Christmas morning is 11 inches (in 1995), but Concord, New Hampshire, has measured up to 26 inches on the ground (in 1970). Concord, New Hampshire, saw a white Christmas in 2019, while Boston did not.

Midwest

The top snow depth on record for Christmas morning in Milwaukee is 25 inches (in 2000) and the record in Chicago is 17 inches (in 1951). The last white Christmas for both cities was in 2017.

Outside of the northern Great Lakes, not much of the Midwest saw snow on the ground last Christmas. One of the few locations that recorded a white Christmas in 2019 was Marquette, Michigan, which had almost two feet of snow on the ground.

Plains

Duluth, Minnesota, and Pierre, South Dakota, have seen more than 2 feet of snow on the ground on Christmas, and both locations experienced a white Christmas in 2019. The record in Wichita, Kansas, is 4 inches (in 2007) and the last white Christmas there was in 2013.

Last year, Minneapolis measured 6 inches of snow on the ground Christmas morning, while Duluth had 18 inches of snow. The last time Des Moines, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Missouri, saw a white Christmas was in 2017.

West

The highest snow depth on Christmas morning in Tahoe City, California, is 52 inches (in 1970). Denver's record is two feet (in 1982). No snow was on the ground the past two Christmases in Denver, but Tahoe City measured 11 inches on Christmas morning of 2019.

Three years ago, Seattle and Portland both experienced their sixth white Christmas on record. Seattle measured 2 inches of snow that Christmas morning.

Farther north in Alaska, Anchorage and Fairbanks unsurprisingly both saw a white Christmas last year, with 5 inches and 14 inches on the ground, respectively.

Yes, It Has Happened in the South

Christmas snow cover isn't just a northern thing. Some years, parts of the southern U.S. have marveled at the sight of a white Christmas.

The greatest Christmas snow depth in both Memphis (10 inches) and Nashville, Tennessee (6 inches), took place in 1963.

It has been at least 10 years since a white Christmas was observed in most of the South, although Tulsa, Oklahoma, observed a trace of snow in 2017.

Three relatively recent events brought an unusual Christmas Day snow cover to parts of the South:

-2009 saw Oklahoma City's snowstorm of record (13.5 inches) and one of only two white Christmases on record in Dallas (2 inches).

-2004 brought a record snowstorm to Corpus Christi, Texas (4.4 inches), and the first day of measurable snow since 1895 to Brownsville, Texas (1.5 inches). Brownsville is on the same latitude as Miami.

-In 1989, a pre-Christmas snowfall was followed by a strong arctic cold outbreak that brought both Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches), and Savannah, Georgia (2 inches), their only white Christmases. Jacksonville, Florida, missed a white Christmas by one day when an inch of snow was left on the ground Christmas Eve morning.

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