At a Glance

CSU's updated outlook released Thursday continues to call for a busy season ahead.The forecast has increased the number of storms from their earlier forecast issued in spring.The outlook cited the lack of El Niño conditions and warmer than average Atlantic waters as factors.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and a newly updated forecast from Colorado State University's (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project has slightly increased the number of storms we can expect in the busy season ahead.

CSU's updated outlook calls for 20 named storms, 10 of which become hurricanes and 5 of which reach Category 3 status or stronger. This forecast increased the number of named storms, hurricanes and Category 3 or stronger hurricanes by one each when compared to the April outlook.

The forecast is also in line with outlooks issued this spring by The Weather Company, an Business, and Atmospheric G2, and NOAA.

One factor cited for the increase in the CSU forecast is the expected phase of ENSO, commonly referred to as El Niño or La Niña, which is one of the strongest indicators of how active a hurricane season will be.

"Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely," said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at CSU.

La Niña, or the cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific, has been in play for the better part of the last two busy hurricane seasons. La Niña typically enhances the amount of activity seen during hurricane season compared to its counterpart, El Niño, which causes stronger shearing winds aloft that limit tropical storm and hurricane growth.

Another factor in this forecast is the warmer-than-average body of water that stretches west to east across the Atlantic.

Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach roughly 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. That typically happens first in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and southwest Atlantic Ocean near Florida, the Bahamas and the Leeward Islands.

When water temperatures are above average in June in the tropical Atlantic and also at latitudes farther north in the Atlantic like they are now, then it generally signals a busy season, Klotzbach said.

These outlooks serve as a reminder that the time to be ready for hurricane season is now, regardless of what the outlooks expect. .

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