At a Glance

Tropical Storm Zeta is located in the northwest Caribbean.Zeta is likely to become a hurricane before striking Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.Zeta could bring rainfall, storm surge and winds impacts to the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to strike Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and then head for the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek, where it could bring flooding rainfall, strong winds and storm surge.

Zeta is centered in the northwest Caribbean right now and is drifting toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel and Cancún. Hurricane conditions are expected in this area by late Monday.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Pinar del Rio, Cuba, where tropical storm conditions are expected on Monday.

Watches and Warnings

(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)

Forecast Track, Intensity

Zeta is expected to gradually strengthen as it heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico Monday into Tuesday.

The system is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel and Cancún.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and favorable upper-level winds are the two main factors that should allow Zeta to strengthen into Tuesday. Zeta could become the Atlantic's 11th hurricane of the season as it approaches the Yucatan late Monday.

Increasing wind shear and cooler waters should prevent additional strengthening of Zeta as it approaches the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek. Zeta could be at or just below hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Wednesday, somewhere from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast.

It's important to note that impacts from rainfall, wind and storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast will largely be the same no matter whether Zeta is a strong tropical storm or a low-end hurricane when it nears landfall.

Current Information and Forecast

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Forecast Impacts

Through early this week, Zeta's broad circulation will wring out bands of heavy rainfall that could trigger some flash flooding in parts of central and western Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Mexico's northeast Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches (locally 12 inches) are possible in these areas.

South Florida and the Florida Keys will also see more locally heavy rainfall from Zeta's far-reaching rainfall into early week. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches (locally 5 inches) are possible.

Damaging winds are expected in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula beginning later Monday. A storm surge of 1-3 feet is expected there.

It's too early to provide any specific details on what impacts the northern U.S. Gulf Coast will see. But heavy rainfall, storm surge and strong winds are all potential threats.

One thing to note is that there will be a broad area of soaking rainfall across the southern and eastern U.S. during the second half of the week ahead. That's because Zeta's moisture will be pulled northward by a separate weather system tracking eastward across the country, as depicted in the map below.

Forecast Setup

(The setup for midweek will include Zeta making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast and a separate weather system tracking across the southern tier of the U.S. The green contours show where widespread rainfall could occur because of this setup on Wednesday night.)

A broad area from the Southern Plains into parts of the South, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic could see at least an inch of rainfall from this setup. Heavier totals are likely in some areas, and that might trigger flash flooding in spots, but it's too early to provide any details.

Check back to weather.com in the days ahead for additional forecast information.

Rainfall Forecast

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