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Stop Sharing Crazy, Overblown Snow Forecasts on Facebook and Twitter
Stop Sharing Crazy, Overblown Snow Forecasts on Facebook and Twitter
Nov 16, 2024 5:53 AM

Isn't it ironic that the area always getting crushed by unreasonable snow total is always the city where the image is going viral?

If you're a weather enthusiast or a user of social media, your list of New Year's resolutions could use one more addition.

When you see a wild, overblown winter weather forecast on Facebook or Twitter, and the source looks sketchy, don't just blindly share it. It leads to the spread of misinformation, and, in a worst-case scenario, could incite an uproar that forces meteorologists to take time issuing a response.

At least one meteorologist is already trying to calm a city after a picture spread across Facebook. Meteorologist Brad Nitz, who works for WSB-TV in Atlanta, has been fielding questions after an old snowfall forecast image was posted to Facebook Sunday, and read over 250,000 times in just a few hours. The maps were from WSB, so fans hounded Nitz, looking for the truth.

The problem was that the story they were sharing . There is currently no threat of a major winter storm for Atlanta in the immediate future.

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It's not just Atlanta that falls victim to these bad forecasts that go viral. All over the country, forecasters are hounded all winter by concerned citizens who saw a forecast on Facebook or Twitter that called for historic snow or ice and want to know if it's true.

Here's how it usually starts. It'll almost always initiate from a "forecast" two or three weeks into the future, because that's when the forecast models tend to give the wildest data. As the event draws nearer, the model skill tends to, but not always, increase for a given storm. Most of the time, that historic blizzard you saw three weeks out is no longer showing up on the models, and before social media, you never heard about these wild forecasts because the experts know how unlikely they are.

It's a little bit like the "telephone" game we all played in elementary school, only with a lot more panic.

"There are many bogus hurricanes, winter storms and severe weather outbreaks numerical models spin up beyond five days out," said weather.com meteorologist . "Experienced meteorologists know which forecast models tend to do this, and play any potential high-impact event that far out carefully, unless it's of unusually high confidence. Take any social media post saying 'Model X says this over a week out' with skepticism. A 'model saying this' post should never be a substitute for a forecast."

These days, it's a different animal, and it's not an easy beast for the experts to contain. Amateurs have access to these forecast models, and they can put some pretty crazy stuff on social media. They share these blockbuster "forecasts" for one reason: because it will get a ton of shares and help build their following.

From there, the consequences of these posts get a lot more frustrating for meteorologists. The social shares spiral out of control, and before long, a large chunk of a city has seen the forecast. They start talking with their friends, and the long-shot weather event suddenly has turned into a slam-dunk historic blizzard. There's just one problem: it'll never happen.

"Most of the 2-3 week 'forecasts' are done by people ," said Birmingham, Alabama, meteorologist James Spann in a recent blog on the topic, never one to mince words. "Most are young weather enthusiasts that, in their love for ice, snow, or severe weather, just 'wishcast'by throwing out model maps they have pulled down on various sites promoting the weather they love and desire without understanding the limitations of using those products, or the science behind them."

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Although it's unlikely the "wishcasting" will be completely eradicated from social media in the near future, there are a few things you can do to make sure you don't get duped. First of all, examine the map. If they're trying to fool you, they might lazily post a map from last year's big storm in your area. If they didn't crop out the date, it might still be on the image, and that's the easiest way to spot a fake.

Also, consider the source. If the person who posted the image isn't a familiar face that you've seen on TV, a trained meteorologist from the National Weather Service or private forecast company such as The Weather Channel, a quick Google search of their name will almost always tell you in less than 30 seconds if this a reputable source. Certified meteorologists should not be sharing a wild forecast for three weeks into the future, and if you can't find the person's portfolio and credentials in a web search, that's a red flag.

Finally, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. If you've lived in the same place your entire life, and you've never seen 20 inches of snow from a single event before, what are the odds that this will be the time it actually happens? Tune in or log on to check your local forecast to see if they're discussing anything similar, and if they're not, it's probably a good idea to stay away from the "share" button.

Social media has added a lot of noise to the meteorology world, and we'll need to work together on silencing some of the incorrect chatter.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Winter in Every State

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