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Is February the Peak of the Season for Blockbuster Northeast Snowstorms?
Is February the Peak of the Season for Blockbuster Northeast Snowstorms?
Sep 20, 2024 10:40 AM

The weekend of February 8 marks the one-year anniversary of Winter Storm Nemo, which buried parts of New England under feet of snow Feb. 8 to Feb. 10, 2013.

Based on past history, early to middle February seems to be a bullseye on the calendar for major Northeast snowstorms

This is a topic The Weather Channel senior meteorologist Stu Ostro(Twitter | Facebook) has blogged about in the past, with the bar graph to the right providing the proof.

The graph shows the 29 Category 3 (major), Category 4 (crippling) and Category 5 (extreme) Northeast snowstorms since 1955 by month as ranked by the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). In 2004, Paul Kocin, currently a National Weather Service meteorologist and Dr. Louis Uccellini, the Director of the National Weather Service, developed the scale to rank the impact of Northeast snowstorms based on snowfall amounts and the population affected.

(MORE: Most Extreme Winter Storms)

In general, widespread heavy snowfall over highly populated areas produces a high NESIS value for a given storm.

The approximate three-week period from Feb. 1 to Feb. 23 has had 16 of the 29 snowstorms (55 percent) ranked Category 3 or higher on the NESIS scale. This includes last year's Category 3Winter Storm Nemo.

(MORE: Spectacular Meteorological Images from Nemo)

Historically, the Category 3 or higher rated Northeast snowstorms have started as early as Dec. 11 and as late as March 12. January has the second highest number with a total of 8, which is exactly half of what early to middle February has produced.

There are no hard facts on why early to middle February has had so many big Northeast snowstorms. However, Ostro did have this to say in this 2010 blog entry:

"I'm not sure exactly why that is; perhaps it's a reflection of an underlying meteorological tension between winter being firmly entrenched in North America but the atmosphere sensing the first signs of the coming change in seasons."

Whatever the reason is, you could say early to middle February is the peak of the season for major Northeast snowstorms.

Will this February produce a blockbuster snowstorm in the Northeast? Only time will tell.

PHOTOS: Winter Storm Nemo- Feb. 7-10, 2013

New Haven, Conn.

A neighborhood near New Haven, Conn., is buried in snow in the aftermath of a storm that hit Connecticut and much of New England. (AP Photo/Craig Ruttle)

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