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Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance Brings Flood Threat to Texas, Including Houston
Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance Brings Flood Threat to Texas, Including Houston
Jan 17, 2024 3:33 PM

At a Glance

A tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico will move slowly into Texas.Excessive rain in a short amount of time could trigger flooding in Texas, despite initially dry soil conditions.Flash flood watches are posted for a part of the upper Texas coast, including Houston.There is a chance it could become a tropical depression before it moves inland.

Rounds of heavy rain will spread into eastern Texas through late week, triggering potential flash flooding, including in the Houston metro area.

The heavy rain will come from an area of disturbed weather in western Gulf of Mexico that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring for possible tropical development. It has a medium chance of organizing into a tropical depression before it moves inland Tuesday night.

Regardless of development, this system's moisture and energy will likely wring out heavy rain the next several days near and inland from the upper Texas coast.

Potential Development Area

(The potential area of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook is shown by a polygon, color-coded by the chance of development over the next five days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance.)

Happening Now

Bands of heavy rain have already begun to wrap into the upper Texas coast; they will only get more numerous the next few days. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out in this area through the afternoon and evening.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

(Watches and warnings are issued by the National Weather Service.)

Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service for a portion of the upper Texas coast, including Houston and Galveston.

Flood Watches

(From the National Weather Service.)

Forecast

In general, 5 to 10 inches of rain is a good bet over southeastern Texas, including the Houston metro area, through late this week. Some areas could pick up 15 inches of rain where rainbands stall.

Rainfall amounts this high could lead to flash flooding, despite initially dry ground, particularly in urban areas. This is especially the case where bands of rain stall and move over the same areas for several hours at a time with rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour.

Locally heavy rain is likely to expand northward into much of eastern Texas, mainly east of the Interstate 35 corridor, as the weather system moves northward later this week.

Rainfall Forecast

(Locally higher amounts are possible.)

It's important to note that rainfall amounts could vary greatly over short distances, so it's difficult to predict exactly where the worst flooding could occur.

"The difference of just a few miles could be the difference of several inches of rain," the National Weather Service in Houston

If you are traveling and encounter a flooded road or underpass, do not attempt to drive through the floodwaters.

The single worst decision you can make in a flash flood is driving your vehicle into floodwaters of unknown depth.

It's easy to misjudge the depth of floodwater, particularly at night. Sometimes the bridge or road masked by floodwater may have been undermined or completely washed out.

Of the 80 flood-related deaths in the U.S. so far in 2019, , according to statistics compiled by that National Weather Service in La Crosse, Wisconsin.

Drought Help Where Rain Isn't Excessive

Rain will be beneficial where it isn't excessive since drought conditions have developed in Texas this summer.

As of Sept. 10, just over half the state is experiencing drought and more than 70% is at least abnormally dry. It hasn't rained in Dallas-Fort Worth since Aug. 30.

Drought conditions as of Sept. 10, 2019.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

The increase in clouds and rainfall will also bring a break from the heat that has dominated the South and will keep temperatures closer to average for this time of year.

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