Glaciers around Mount Everest are disappearing at an alarming rate, according to results of new research. (Thinkstock)

If we continue emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at current rates, glaciers in the Mount Everest region could disappear by up to 99 percent by the end of the century. That’s a by scientists from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Nepal and Utrecht University in the Netherlands. They published their findings Wednesday, May 27, in the journal The Cryosphere.

“These glaciers may be ,” said ICIMOD’s Joseph Shea, study lead, in a news release. “Increases in precipitation are not enough to offset the increased melt,” he added. Smaller glacier volume and area in the region could mean less water available — for growing crops, drinking, even generating power — during the dry season, the researchers write in their paper.

Another potential issue: caused by natural lakes formed from and dammed by glacial debris. “Avalanches and earthquakes can breach the dams, causing catastrophic floods that can result in river flows 100 times greater than normal,” notes the news release.

To draw these conclusions, the researchers started by looking at historical data from local weather stations during the past half-century, then tested eight different climate scenarios using modeling, focusing specifically on temperature and precipitation. At best, glaciers around the world’s highest mountain will lose 70 percent of their volume by the year 2100; at worst that number creeps up to 99 percent.

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“Even if we take measures now, we see it ,” Shea told The Washington Post. The bulk of the ice loss doesn’t occur near the peak of Everest, around 29,000 feet (8,850 meters), but rather around an elevation of 5,000 to 6,000 meters, the study reports.

Regardless of the precise elevation of these changes, they could have serious potential impacts on the populations below. " are the largest reservoirs of freshwater on our planet, and their melting or growing is one of the best indicators of climate change,” NASA wrote in the description for a satellite image of Imja glacier. “Glacial runoff from the Himalayas has a direct effect on the nearby rivers … and is very important for lower-lying regions where there is a very large human population.”

Shea and his collaborators don’t focus on what effect this might have — and they’re careful to note the flaws in their methodology — but they do stress at least some glacier volume loss is probable. “The signal of future glacier change in the region is clear,” Shea notes. “Continued and possibly accelerated mass loss from glaciers is likely given the projected increase in temperatures.”

Click for the complete research article, “Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya.”

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