A western Pacific tropical cyclone, Hagibis, underwent explosive intensification. Hagibis went from a tropical storm to a Category 5 super typhoon in 24 hours Sunday into Monday.This is among the most rapid intensification rates on record anywhere on Earth. There have been a number of rapid intensification events in recent years.
Super Typhoon Hagibis strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 super typhoon in just a day is among the most explosive rapid intensifications of any tropical cyclone on record anywhere on Earth.
This latest western Pacific storm first became a tropical depression and then tropical storm Saturday.
After that, Hagibis went to town.
It exploded from a tropical storm with estimated winds of 60 mph Sunday morning (U.S. Eastern time) to a Category 5 super typhoon with winds estimated at 160 mph in just 24 hours as its center neared the northern Mariana island of Anatahan, about 200 miles north-northeast of Guam, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
(FORECAST: Hagibis a Danger For Japan This Weekend)
Infrared satellite loop and estimated maximum winds of Hagibis as it rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 super typhoon from October 6-7, 2019.
(Estimated winds: U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Hagibis was the strongest rapid intensification of any western Pacific tropical cyclone in at least , according to Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist at Colorado State University.
Satellite estimate of maximum sustained winds (in knots) from Super Typhoon Hagibis from Oct. 5-7, 2019. The red arrows highlight the period of Hagibis' rapid intensification from Oct. 6-7.
(University of Wisconsin-CIMSS)
In September 1983, Super Typhoon Forrest's winds , from a 75 mph Category 1 storm to 175 mph Category 5 behemoth, according NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Its central pressure measured by reconnaissance aircraft also plunged by 100 millibars during that time. Unfortunately, routine aircraft missions into western Pacific typhoons ended in 1987, so we don't have any exact measurements of the central pressure or wind speed of Hagibis.
Only a couple of recent hurricanes appeared to top Hagibis' incredible intensification rate.
In late October 2015, maximum sustained winds increased an incredible 120 mph in 24 hours from 85 mph at 1 a.m. CDT on Oct. 22 to 205 mph at 1 a.m. CDT Oct. 23. Patricia became the most intense hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere with peak winds up to 215 mph, before slamming into southwest Mexico.
Another October storm, Wilma, went from a tropical storm to hurricane from Oct. 18-19, 2005 in the western Caribbean Sea. Its maximum winds increased 110 mph in 24 hours.
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Wilma at peak intensity in the western Caribbean Sea on Oct. 19, 2005.
(NOAA)
The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Monday the eye of Hagibis was only about 5 miles in diameter, much smaller than the , according to NOAA HRD.
The tiny eye tracked near or over part of Anatahan, a 13-square-mile uninhabited island in the Northern Marianas about 200 miles north-northeast of Guam. It could also be tracked by .
Hagibis' tiny circulation took advantage of , low wind shear and winds aloft that were spreading apart from its core. Tropical cyclones with small inner cores of convection are notorious for rapidly developing and weakening much faster than expected.
Hagibis became the , according to Klotzbach, following in February, in early September and in late September.
Hagibis also joined an impressive list of Atlantic hurricanes that rapidly intensified since 2017, including Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, Michael and Lorenzo. Rapid intensification in a tropical cyclone is as an increase in wind speed of at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
Extreme hurricane intensification rates such as what we just witnessed with Hagibis could increase in the future from climate change, according to from Kerry Emanuel, an MIT hurricane scientist.
“My own work shows that rates of intensification increase more rapidly than intensity itself as the climate warms, so that rapidly intensifying storms like Michael may be expected to become more common," said Emanuel in an email to wunderground.com last October.