The track of Dorian remains uncertain, but impacts are likely from Florida to the Carolinas.Coastal flooding will be a concern from Florida to the Carolinas.Rainfall flooding will also be a threat along the Southeast coast.The Bahamas will continue to see the worst impacts through Tuesday.Dorian tied as the strongest Atlantic landfalling hurricane on record.
Hurricane Dorian is hammering the northwestern Bahamas and this week it will track near the southeastern U.S. coastline, where it will potentially bring damaging winds, storm-surge flooding and heavy rainfall.
(MORE: Latest Dorian Forecast)
Here's what to watch for in the days ahead.
Dorian's exact track in relation to the southeastern U.S. coast remains uncertain.
The hurricane is moving very slowly near the northwest Bahamas right now. It will turn north and northeastward near or offshore from the Southeast coastline from Tuesday through late this week.
Large, battering surf and coastal flooding (possibly major) will likely impact the entire Southeast coast no matter what track Dorian takes.
Areas from the eastern coast of Florida to coastal Georgia and the eastern Carolinas could see damaging winds and flooding rainfall. The magnitude of the winds and rainfall in those areas will be dependent on how close Dorian moves to the coast.
(MORE: Four Things to Know About Spaghetti Models)
Model Forecast Tracks
(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path.)
Major coastal flooding is possible along parts of the Southeast coast from Dorian this week.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding has already been affecting the Southeast coast since Labor Day weekend, before Dorian even nears the coast.
Through early week, the threat of inundation from storm surge is highest on the east coast of Florida.
The National Hurricane Center says that if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide, then water levels could reach 4 to 7 feet above ground level along the east coast of Florida from Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River.
It's too early to know how much storm surge inundation there might be from coastal Georgia to the eastern Carolinas.
There is also a high risk of rip currents along the Southeast coast right now, and beachgoers should stay out of the water.
Times of High Tide Monday Night and Possible Location of Dorian
Dorian is expected to be moving slowly as it tracks near the southeastern U.S. As mentioned, the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding increases with a slow-moving system.
Moderate to locally heavy rain is a concern in parts of eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas.
Some spots may see 15 inches of rainfall along the Southeast coast. A slow track northward near the Southeast coast could result in a serious flood risk for those areas.
Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)
The Bahamas continue to be battered by Dorian, and the threat of life-threatening storm-surge flooding and destructive winds will continue there through at least Monday night or Tuesday.
Water levels could rise as high as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels where winds blow onshore in the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island.
Dorian's slow movement will also produce rainfall totals of 12 to 24 inches in the northwestern Bahamas, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches. Flooding from rainfall is likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas.
Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.)
Dorian made landfall on Sunday on Elbow Cay in the Abacos of the northwest Bahamas with winds of 185 mph.
That ties the 1935 Labor Day Hurricanein the Florida Keys as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
Dorian's 185-mph winds also tied as the second-highest sustained wind speed among all Atlantic hurricanes on record.