At a Glance

The Eastern Pacific's first storm of 2022, Agatha, is likely to push toward Mexico's Pacific coast.It could arrive at the coast by Monday, possibly as a hurricane.There is a chance Agatha's remnant could spawn another system in the Gulf or western Caribbean later next week.But there may be a significant barrier that could hamper that development.Regardless, life-threatening rainfall flooding and mudslides are possible in Mexico and C. America.

The first storm of the 2022 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is likely to threaten Mexico's Pacific coast as either a tropical storm or hurricane by Monday, and a serious threat of flooding could linger in parts of Central America well into next week.

It may be hard to believe we're already in the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which kicked off May 15, and we're just days away from the official June 1 start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

(MORE: 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook)

Over the past few days, the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a cluster of thundershowers in the Eastern Pacific Ocean a couple hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.

The majority of computer forecast models strengthen the system (Tropical Storm Agatha), then draw it slowly northeastward toward the Mexican Pacific coast by Monday. Some models suggest Agatha could become a hurricane before it reaches the coast anywhere from Chiapas, Oaxaca or Guerrero states.

Model Forecast Tracks

(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance by forecasters.)

While it's too soon to determine where impacts such as storm surge and damaging winds may occur, as that depends on the exact track and intensity of the storm.

Residents and those with vacation plans in those areas, including Acapulco, should monitor the forecast closely for important updates.

Flash Flood, Mudslide Danger

The system's slow movement means dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are possible in parts of southern Mexico along and east of its path.

But even if Agatha dissipates over land, that's not necessarily the end of the story.

Forecast models suggest a broad area of low pressure known as a Central American gyre, or CAG, could form.

This circulation could spin for several days next week, wrapping deep moisture into areas from southeast Mexico to Panama, where some locations may pick up over 6 inches of rain.

Rainfall Potential Next 7 Days

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )

CAGs have been notorious flash flood producers, often with deadly results.

In 2005, dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico, but its remnant spin became part of a larger gyre that triggered heavy rainfall over Central America.

While Stan's direct circulation resulted in about 80 deaths, severe flash flooding and mudslides from the gyre claimed an estimated 1,000 to 2,000 lives across Central America, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Could Eastern Pacific Remnant Spawn a Gulf Storm?

Near the end of May 2020, Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, then moved inland and dissipated over the mountains of Guatemala.

But Amanda's remnant spin above the ground – its "ghost," if you will – continued moving north and northwest into the Bay of Campeche, the bowl-shaped bay at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Mexico.

Soon after the "ghost" emerged back over water, thunderstorms became more organized and surface low pressure reformed. What would soon become was born.

Incidentally, the combination of Amanda, Cristobal and a CAG over nine days dumped up to 34 inches of rain in southeast Mexico, 42 inches in El Salvador and 26 inches in Guatemala. Forty-three deaths were attributed to the flooding or landslides in Central America.

Track history of Tropical Storm Amanda, then Tropical Storm Cristobal in late May and early June 2020. The black portion of the track indicates where the remnant from Amanda tracked before spawning what would become Cristobal.

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

This "ghost" scenario is what some computer forecast models are suggesting could occur later next week.

Namely, Agatha may dissipate over southern Mexico, but remnant spin from Agatha above the ground could migrate into the Bay of Campeche late next week.

Another possibility is for development to occur on the east side of the gyre over the western Caribbean Sea later next week.

It's too early to determine which of these scenarios may occur.

But there's one obstacle a Gulf or western Caribbean system seems likely to face.

The same forecast models suggesting development is possible are also forecasting strong wind shear over the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea next week.

This changing wind speed and/or direction with height tends to tilt or rip apart systems trying to consolidate thunderstorms and become tropical depressions or storms. It's typically strong in these areas in early June.

Even if a tropical depression were to form in the Bay of Campeche later next week, it could be sheared apart if it tries to move northward in the Gulf of Mexico, if this wind shear forecast holds true.

Or, it could hold together, but be a lopsided depression or tropical storm limited in its intensity by wind shear.

Current Satellite and Wind Shear Analysis

(Areas of clouds are shown in white. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.)

The western Gulf, Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean Sea have historically been hot spots for development in June.

Last year, formed, then quickly moved ashore in Louisiana and the Deep South on Father's Day weekend.

Origin points of all tropical/subtropical storms in the Atlantic Basin in June from 1950-2021.

(Data: NOAA)

The Upshot

The bottom line is the Eastern Pacific system (Agatha) and the larger Central American gyre pose a danger of flooding rain and mudslides in southern Mexico and parts of Central America this weekend into next week. Damaging winds and storm surge flooding can be expected near the coast close to where Agatha tracks.

For now, there's no threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast, but that could change. Check back with weather.com for updates in the coming days.

It's another reminder that now is a good time to well before the season's first storm or hurricane.

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