At a Glance

A draft of a U.N. climate report says there isa "very high risk"global average temperatures will surpass the Paris Agreement key marker of 1.5 degrees Cwithin 12 to 16 years.A separate study released this week says extreme weather events will increase even with only a 1-degree rise in temperatures.

Extreme weather events triggered by global warming are looking increasingly likely in the coming decades, even if all countries abide by the goals set in the Paris Agreement, according to two reports released this week.

A draft of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) report published Tuesday by Climate Home Newssays there isa "very high risk"within the next 12 to 16 years.

The draft report notes that if global average temperatures rise above 1.5 C, “climate change and climate change responses will affect people in countries at all levels of development, but those most at risk will be individuals and communities experiencing multidimensional poverty, persistent vulnerabilities and various forms of deprivation and disadvantage."

To avoid surpassing the 1.5 Cmarker, emissions would have to be curtailed to nearly zero, the U.N. draft report says. Because of that unlikelihood, keeping the planet from "overshooting" 1.5 degrees Celsius is virtually unavoidable, the report says.

The landmark 2105 climate accord agreed upon by all countries except the United States, which pulled out of the agreement in June,calls on nations to voluntarily limit greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is to keepaverage global temperatures from surpassing a maximum 2 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial temperatures.

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While extreme weather events will undoubtedlybe worsened if Paris climate accord targets aren't met, a study published Wednesday in Science Advances says heat waves, droughts and dry spells will increase whether targets are met or not, even with "only" a 1-degree rise, known informally as the "aspirational" target of the Paris Agreement.

The team of scientists led by Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor at Stanford’sSchool of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, : increases of "1.5 to 2 degrees if countries live up to their aspirations,or 2 to 3 degrees if they meet the commitments that they have made," according to a Stanford press release.

“The really big increases in record-setting event probability are reduced if the world achieves the aspirational targets rather than the actual commitments,” said Diffenbaugh. “At the same time, even if those aspirational targets are reached, we still will be living in a climate that has substantially greater probability of unprecedented events than the one we’re in now.”

The study notes that these weather extremes will becomeif temperatures surpass the 2 degrees C marker.

“Damages from extreme weather and climate events have been increasing, and 2017 was the costliest year on record,” Diffenbaugh said. “These rising costs are one of many signs that we are not prepared for today’s climate, let alone for another degree of global warming.”

Diffenbaugh says the results of the study offers communities around the world the opportunity to prepare for a future of more extreme weather extremes.

"We can use this kind of research to make decisions that both build resilience now and help us be prepared for the climate that we will face in the future," he said.