At a Glance

The path of Karen over the next week could become rather strange.It is expected to slow and stall, then could make a loop well south of Bermuda.In one scenario, Karen could be steered westward next week.This scenario is similar in some ways to Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.But, Karen could also fizzle out.Therefore, it's uncertain if Karen will ever be a threat to the Bahamas or the U.S. next week.

Tropical Storm Karen has an uncertain, strange future ahead, and one possibility is a loopy track eerily reminiscent of Hurricane Jeanne, one of the big hurricanes of 2004.

Karen is currently gliding north-northeastward, but its forward speed is expected to come to a halt late this week.

(MORE: Complete Karen Forecast)

Karen's Forecast Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

This can happen when large-scale features such as the Bermuda-Azores high weaken, leaving the storm without any appreciable steering winds for a period of time.

Stalled tropical cyclones with weak steering winds are among the most difficult scenarios for computer models to forecast correctly.

Even with less hostile shearing winds and warm ocean water, Karen could succumb to dry air and fizzle in or near the Bermuda Triangle.

For now, Karen is expected to begin moving west this weekend as high pressure responsible for a prolonged early-fall heat wave rebuilds over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic Ocean and becomes the system's steering wheel.

But that doesn't mean it would be able to make the entire journey west toward the Bahamas or Southeast U.S. without falling apart.

The bottom line is that it's too soon to determine the path and intensity of Karen.

Hurricane Jeanne, a Cautionary Tale

There is recent precedent for a weird, loopy path in this part of the Atlantic Ocean that eventually included a U.S. landfall.

(MORE: The Weirdest Hurricane Tracks)

In September 2004, Tropical Storm Jeanne moved through the Caribbean. Its slow movement caused catastrophic flooding and landslides in Haiti and killed more than 3,000 people.

Hobbled by land interaction with Hispañiola, Jeanne temporarily lost its atmospheric steering wheel.

This was due largely to Hurricane Ivan, which made landfall along the northern Gulf Coast and eroded Jeanne's steering high pressure to its north.

Hurricane Jeanne's path history in mid-late September 2004. The anticyclonic loop in its path is highlighted by the white circles east of the Bahamas.

Jeanne dawdled and moved eastward a bit in the Bermuda Triangle before it finally found its steering wheel again.

High pressure aloft built over the East Coast in the wake of Ivan. This high grabbed Jeanne and slung it toward Florida after it completed a loop east of the Bahamas. The storm eventually made a Category 3 landfall near Stuart, Florida.

The features responsible for Hurricane Jeanne's turn west toward the U.S. in late September 2004.

The building eastern U.S. high-pressure system scenario from Jeanne in 2004 has some resemblance to one of the scenarios ahead for Karen.

But Karen's center will be several hundred miles farther east than Jeanne was during its loop. Even if Karen is steered westward for a time, there is no guarantee it would make it far enough west to threaten land next week.

Karen may also have to battle dry air and perhaps more hostile wind shear next week. So whether Karen is able to survive as a tropical cyclone next week is a question at this point.

For now, there's no immediate concern for the U.S. East Coast or the Bahamas.

Check back with us at weather.com for important forecast updates.

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