At a Glance

Lake-effect snow requires cold air to cross over a relatively warmer body of water.If the Earth's temperatures are warming, lake temperatures could also stay warm and ice-free longer into the winter.This may cause the lake-effect snow season to get a later start and be shorter than what occurs today by the end of the 21st century.In the meantime, increased lake-effect snow is actually occurring in the Great Lakes snowbelts, studies have found.

Lake-effect snow occurs every winter downwind of the Great Lakes as long as the necessary conditions are met: cold air crossing over a relatively warmer lake surface, which picks up moisture to condense into clouds and dumps heavy snow downwind of the lakes. But as the Earth's climate changes, how much longer will these ingredients continue to come together?

The Great Lakes are known for their , including a10-day period from Feb. 3-12, 2007, when an incredible 141 inches of snow was measured in the town of , about 50 miles northeast of Syracuse on the Tug Hill Plateau, east of Lake Ontario.

During the Blizzard of '66, in Oswego in only 34 hours by legendary professor Bob Sykes, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

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Satellite image taken on Jan. 6, 2017, of the Great Lakes during a lake-effect snow event. Clouds can be seen streaming off the Great Lakes, with lake-effect snow bands visible along the southern shore of Lake Erie and the eastern end of Lake Ontario.

(NASA/NOAA)

But the climate is changing. For the third year in a row, 2016 set a dating back to 1880,and 2017 is on pace to be the .Three separate analyses came to theseconclusions, and, more importantly, the warming trend in global temperatures continues.

If our planet's temperatures are getting warmer, surely that must mean there will be less lake-effect snow in the future. If the air isn't cold, how are we going to get lake-effect snow to form?

But in reality, it's the opposite, according to the . It reported in mid-November the amount of seasonallake-effect snow is on a modest increase – a trend that's expected to continue through the mid-21st century.

Lake-effect snow is directly related to how warm and ice-free the lakes are, as well as the difference between the lake temperatures and the temperature of the air blowing over them.

Climate Centralsaid in a world of global warming, not only will lake temperatures increase, but the lakes will also remain ice-freelonger into the winter.This is why we might see an increase in lake-effect snow, initially, through mid-century.

The research organization expects thefrequency and intensity of cold-air outbreaks over the Great Lakes to decrease substantially by the later portion of the 21st century, along with a further increase in lake temperatures. This implies seasonal snowfall amounts will decrease as rain becomes the more dominant precipitation type and the come together less often.

"However, as the air warms, the amount of snow during the transitional seasons of late fall and early spring is expected to decrease, with more of the precipitation falling as rain," Climate Central said.

November will feature the largest decrease in lake-effect snow accumulationsdue to warmer temperatures early in the season, which indicates a later onset of the lake-effect snow season, the research organization added. The demonstrates this visually in a series of line graphs.

Lake-effect snow will not go away completely by the end of this century, Climate Central also said, but the season will be shorter than what occurs today. Heavy November lake-effect snowstorms, such as the one that dumped up to 88 inches of snow in the Buffalo southtowns in 2014, could become a rarity by the year 2100.

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"Rather than peaking in fall and early winter, heavy lake-effect snow would be pushed back later in the season, generally from January through March," the research organization concluded.

A separatefound similar results, also suggestingthere will be increased lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes snowbelts through the middle of this century, followed by a decrease toward the end of the century.

"As long as there is enough cold air to blow over the lakes, it could mean an increase in lake-effect snows even in a world where temperatures are increasing, as counter-intuitive as that may sound," he said.

Once a lake freezes over, the moisture and heat source for lake-effect snow is lost, so it's basically shut off for the remainder of the winter season. But as long as we have cold air, warm water and ice-free lakes, we'll continue to get lake-effect snow each year.

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Satellite image taken on Feb. 14, 2014, of the highly ice-covered Great Lakes.

(NASA/NOAA)

According to Di Liberto, we've likely seen changes in lake-effect snow already, but that's an uncertain assumption because snowfall is measured by hand with a ruler, which leaves room for user error. If it's not measured properly, inaccurate numbers may be recorded.

Regardless, Di Liberto said recent research has suggested lake-effect snow totals along Lake Superior and Lake Michigan have increased from 1927 to 2007. Previous research found increases for the entire Great Lakes region between 1931 and 2001.

There is one hiccup in the hypothesis of a warmer climate leading to increased lake-effect snow, Di Libertosaid:"The cold air that flows over the lakes will also be getting warmer over time, which would favorlesslake-effect snow. It’s like an epic game of climate change tug-of-war."

According to a combination of climate models and lake models used inVavrus et. al 2013 and Notaro et. al 2015, heavy lake-effect snowstorms will become more frequent around Lake Superior by 2050.

Map showing the projected change in average surface-air temperature (°F) in the later part of this century (2071-2099) relative to the later part of the last century (1970-1999) under a higher-emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in global emissions (A2).

(Climate.gov/NOAA)

A study by Wright in 2013 used higher-resolution computer models to simulate lake-effect with warmer lakes and less ice coverage, and the results showed increased snowfall downwind of all the Great Lakes and farther inland.

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Therefore, Di Liberto concluded an increase in lake-effect snow is possible for a while, but eventually, the snow will turn to rain as global temperatures continue to rise – news that is consistent with Climate Central's findings.

Brian Donegan is a digital meteorologist at weather.com. Follow him on,and .