Coastal flooding in Maryland. The state earned a B+ rating in a new Climate Central and ICF International report for its capacity to combat future climatic threats, including flooding. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Most U.S. states are prepared to fight the climatic events they currently face — whether drought, wildfires, inland flooding, heat or coastal flooding. But few have taken the appropriate steps to combat future threat levels from climate change, a new analysis from Climate Central and ICF international said Wednesday ().
“Today, we have $8 billion in [climatic] damages a year. In the '80s, adjusted for inflation, we had $3 billion,” Richard Wiles, the Senior Vice President for Program Strategy and Integration at Climate Central, told weather.com. “We're seeing more impacts, and we're very confident those impacts are going to increase — both in terms of the cost of human lives and the cost of recovery.”
Creating comprehensive plans at the state level to address future threats would “save lives both now and in the future,” he added.
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To identify the states most vulnerable to the five major climate threats — extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding and coastal flooding — Climate Central applied the detailed models from the latest (IPCC) report, scaled the models to the local level and projected them out for the next 50 years.
Then, in states that were found to have statistically significant increasing threats in the coming five decades, scientists examined preparedness measures, including emergency management plans, vulnerability assessments, state policies and more.
States were graded on a curve "relative to what other states have done and relative to what [threats] other states face," Wiles said. "No matter how big your threat is, you can still get an A; no matter how little your threat is you can still get a F."
California was the standout from the report: The Golden State faces extreme heat, drought, wildfires and flooding, but has done the most to prepare, the report found, earning the state an A rating. Conversely, Texas also faces a high level of threat, but "basically hasn't done anything for future threats," Wiles said, earning the state an F.
These predictions do not represent certainties, however. In particular, inland flooding, drought and wildfires are difficult to model this far out, Wiles said. "You can't predict the incidence of wildfires in 2040," he said, as an example. "You have to go for the indicators that best capture the increasing threat ... understand that it's really a threat potential."
According to the analysis, here are the 10 states most and least at risk of consequential climatic events, based on this threat potential and current preparedness measures. , "States at Risk: America's Preparedness Report Card," is available at climatecentral.org.
California - ANew York - AMassachusetts - APennsylvania - AConnecticut - A-Delaware - B+North Carolina - B+Maryland - B+Washington - B+Virginia- B
Arkansas - FTexas- FNevada- FMississippi- FMissouri- FAlabama- D-Ohio- D-Montana- D-South Dakota- D-Kentucky- D
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An emaciated polar bear is seen on a small sheet of ice in this image taken in August in Svalbard, north of mainland Norway. (Kerstin Langenberger)