At a Glance

Colorado State University, NOAA and The Weather Company all expect an active hurricane season ahead.Each expects more than the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.But this season isn't expected to be anything close to what happened in 2020.

The rest of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be active and potentially dangerous, according to the latest outlooks released this week by Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Colorado State's released Thursday calls for 18 named storms, eight of which become hurricanes and four of which become Category 3 or stronger.

NOAA's released Wednesday is similar, expecting 15 to 21 named storms, seven to 10 of which become hurricanes and three to five of which become Category 3 or stronger.

Both forecasts are also in line with the latest forecast from The Weather Company, an Business, all above the 30-year average (1991-2020) of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

These final outlooks before the heart of the hurricane season usually kicks into gear include the five named storms and one hurricane (Elsa) that have already developed. On July 2, became the earliest fifth named storm on record.

(MORE: 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names)

Current 2021 hurricane season outlooks from The Weather Company, Colorado State University and NOAA compared to a 1991-2020 average season.

NOAA predicted a 65% chance of a more active than average season, and only a 10% chance of less than average activity in 2021.

A record 30 named storms formed in the 2020 hurricane season, .

Here are some questions and answers about what these outlooks mean.

What Do Forecasters Examine?

One of the ingredients meteorologists analyze is the water temperature of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

An above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes is more likely if temperatures in the main development region (MDR) between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are warmer than average. Conversely, below-average ocean temperatures can lead to fewer tropical systems.

Assuming atmospheric factors are favorable, warmer waters in the MDR allow tropical waves, the formative engines that can eventually become tropical storms, to get closer to the Caribbean and the U.S.

In late spring, water temperatures across the MDR were trending near or even cooler than average.

But that has changed in recent weeks.

"The tropical Atlantic has undergone some anomalous warming over the past month and is now generally warmer than normal," wrote Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist and leader of the Colorado State University forecast team.

Klotzbach said this water temperature pattern in August has correlated with active Atlantic hurricane seasons in the past.

However, this warmth , nor is it near even warmer August tropical Atlantic water temperatures in 2010 and 2005, according to Klotzbach.

Another factor of interest is wind shear. This difference in wind speeds and/or direction with height can disrupt or rip apart an active tropical cyclone or a system trying to organize.

As of early August, wind shear in the MDR (Caribbean Sea to west Africa) is generally near or even below average, implying less of this hostile factor in play.

Klotzbach also noted July surface pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic were a bit above normal, and one reason CSU ticked down their latest forecast from 20 to 18 named storms and 9 to 8 hurricanes.

One year ago, these pressure anomalies were the lowest on record since 1948, according to Klotzbach, contributing to the frenetic 2020 hurricane season.

How Much of a Role Will La Niña Play?

El Niño/La Niña, the periodic warming/cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can shift weather patterns and influence winds in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season.

La Niña ended early this year and ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) are present.

However, issued a La Niña watch in its early July update. There are indications that La Niña may emerge again during the September through November period and last through the upcoming winter.

Early July 2021 model-based forecast probabilities for La Niña (blue bars), neutral (gray bars) and El Niño (red bars) into early 2022.

(IRI, NOAA/CPC)

La Niñas typically correspond to because the cooler Eastern Pacific water produces less wind shear in the Caribbean Sea that would otherwise rip apart hurricanes and tropical systems trying to develop.

Such was the case in 2020 when La Niña intensified to become the strongest in 10 years. This was one factor behind a record in 2020.

What Does This Mean for the U.S.?

A record 11 storms made landfall in the U.S. in 2020, including six hurricanes: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta and Zeta.

(MORE: Laura, Entire Greek Alphabet Retired Following 2020 Hurricane Season)

That's well above the average of one to two hurricane landfalls each season, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

Despite the record 2020 season, there isn't necessarily a strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. One or more of the named storms predicted to develop this season could hit the U.S., or none at all.

Some past hurricane seasons have been inactive but included at least one notable landfall.

The 1992 season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane.

In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there (21) as Andrew did in South Florida (26).

On the other hand, the 2010 Atlantic season was very active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Despite the high number of storms that year, no hurricanes and only one tropical storm made landfall in the U.S.

In other words, a season can deliver many storms but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact.

It's impossible to know for certain if a U.S. hurricane strike will occur this season, how many may occur and where.

A hurricane season doesn't have to be as prolific as 2020 to be dangerous and destructive.

Also, keep in mind a weak tropical storm hitting the U.S. can cause major impacts, particularly if it moves slowly and its rainfall triggers flooding.

The time to is now, before a storm threatens.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, .