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A New Year's Weekend Snowstorm for the East Coast?
A New Year's Weekend Snowstorm for the East Coast?
Nov 15, 2024 12:41 AM

At a Glance

It's possible another coastal storm could bring snow to the Northeast coast New Year's weekend.However, uncertainty in this forecast is very high.Prior to that, a swath of snow is expected to blanket parts of the Plains and Midwest late this week.If that wasn't enough, portions of the South also have the potential for snow, sleet and freezing rain this weekend.

The final days of 2017 could feature an East Coast snowstorm, just days after brought a Christmas clobbering to parts of New England and New York state.

(MORE: )

Unfortunately, at this time, there is an extreme amount of uncertainty regarding whether this will actually happen, and if it does happen, the precise timingand who may be affected.

Welcome to the world of winter weather forecasting.

What we do know is a strong southward plunge of the jet stream will sharpen up this weekend over the Great Lakes and East, providing the jet stream energy that could, in theory, spin up anEast Coast storm.

The southward plunge of the jet stream will sharpen up over the Great Lakes and East this weekend.

We also know that over much of the central and eastern U.S. well into the first week of the new year.

This is the general setup in play.

The Devil is in the Details

We're fairly confident a swath ofsnow will spread across parts of the Plains to the Midwest in the Friday and Friday night timeframe.

For now, this looks like a modest snow event in these areas.

(MORE: )

What happens nextalong the East Coast this weekend is very much a bold-faced question mark.

Once the sharpening jet's energy pivots over the frontal boundary off the East Coast between the bitter cold air to the north and less cold air to the south, low pressure should develop.

That brings up two possible scenarios this weekend:

If the low intensifies quickly, tracks closer to the Northeast coast: a Northeast snowstorm If the low doesn't intensify, or does so too far offshore: no Northeast snowstorm

Current trends in the computer modelsas of Wednesday eveningindicate that the low may be farther offshore and weaker, favoring no Northeast snowstorm.

The potential setup into this weekend from the Plains and Midwest to the Northeast. Whether low pressure tracks near the Northeast seaboard or well offshore will determine if parts of the Northeast see a snowstorm this weekend.

If that wasn't enough, given the cold air's penetration into the Deep South, there's some potential for snow, sleet and freezing rain in parts of the South this New Year's weekendif the disturbance can tap Gulf of Mexico moisture.

But, again, whether that will happen, much less where, when and how much wintry precipitation actually happens,remains highly uncertain.

Based on current indications, it is appearing more likely that some wintry precipitation will impact the South this weekend into New Year's Day, but the details remain highly uncertain.

If a weak low-pressure system can tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture, there could be enough Arctic air in place to produce wintry precipitation across the South.

The bottom line is that you should check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast changes on what could be an impactful last weekend of 2017.

As we draw closer to the weekend, this rather uncertain forecast will come into focus, allowing us to highlight any specific wintry threats that may impact your New Year's weekend plans.

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