At a Glance

An area of disturbed weather is tracking westward through the Caribbean Sea.It could develop into a tropical depression or storm late this week as it pushes toward Central America.Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Pilar is also soaking Central America as it moves away.Central America has been a hot spot for tropical activity recently in November.

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A​ tropical storm might form in the western Caribbean Sea late this week and could become a threat to parts of Central America by this weekend as the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season enters its final month.

What's out there right now: An area of low pressure with some showers is in the central Caribbean Sea, bringing soaking rain to parts of Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

T​his disturbance has been tagged as Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This is a to identify systems they are monitoring for possible formation into a tropical depression or storm.

I​n the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Pilar is located near the coast of Central America, and has started to move away from the area.

Caribbean disturbance will produce heavy rainfall in Central America, regardless of development: There are two factors that could lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm.

First, it will move over , still at record warm levels for this time of year. Second, wind shear – the change in wind direction and/or speed with height – is forecast to be relatively low in the western Caribbean Sea later this week, something rather unusual in a stronger El Niño autumn.

Therefore, this system has a chance of becoming Tropical Depression Twenty Two or Tropical Storm Vince as it moves west toward Central America.

(​MORE: What Happens If Hurricane Season Runs Out Of Names?)

High pressure will steer this tropical disturbance toward Central America later this week.

Regardless of how much Invest 97L organizes, it will produce a heavy rain threat in parts of Central America late this week into the weekend. That could result in flooding and mudslides.

Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.

P​ilar is a soaker, too. Earlier, we mentioned Tropical Storm Pilar is spinning in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

P​ilar has taken a weird track, first drifting closer to the coast of El Salvador, but is now turning around and moving back out to sea to end the week.

T​his close approach is bringing a threat of locally heavy rainfall to parts of Central America from Guatemala to Nicaragua and possibly Costa Rica the next day or so. And this could saturate the ground before the Caribbean system arrives, increasing the flood and mudslide danger into early next week.

(​INTERACTIVE MAP: Pilar Forecast Path, Radar)

N​ovember isn't a throwaway month. You may have thoughts of cold and snow when the calendar turns to November. But while not nearly as active as September, it's still the final month of hurricane season.

A​ccording to National Hurricane Center , November has averaged one named storm and one hurricane in recent decades. When they do form, the western Caribbean Sea is a typical November development hot spot.

Typical development areas in November in the Atlantic Basin

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

Recent Novembers have been active. L​ast year, slammed into Florida, chewing away parts of the state's Atlantic coastline. In 2020, hurricanes and made Category 4 landfalls along northern Nicaragua's Caribbean coast within 15 miles of each other just 13 days apart.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter from a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X/Twitter, Facebook and Threads.

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