This photo illustration depicts Durban, South Africa, after a 2 degrees Celsius increase in global temperature, a threshold that, if surpassed, could usher in catastrophic global impacts from climate change. (Credit: sealevel.climatecentral.org/Nickolay Lamm)

Long-term sea level rise set in motion by near-term carbon emissions threatens major coastal cities across the world. Here we present paired images showing how iconic locations — in London, Shanghai, Mumbai, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, Durban and New York— could fare under scenarios of business as usual vs. a sharp transition to clean energy.

In the first image for each pair, we show projections of post-2100 sea level rise that could be locked in following 4°C (7.2°F) of warming from carbon pollution in the coming decades. This pathway corresponds roughly to.

In December, a major new round of global climate talks is being held in Paris. The decisions reached there may have a strong bearing on which of these two scenarios the future looks like most. Projections of locked-in sea level come from our peer-reviewedpublished October 12 in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A.A special Climate Central-led, published November 9, describes the application of those projections to global elevation data for making the maps upon which these images are based.In the second image, we show projections based on 2°C (3.6°F) of warming from carbon pollution. This degree of warming corresponds to the target limit widely discussed today as the threshold to avoid catastrophic climate change — and officially designated as part of the Cancun Agreement, signed in 2010 by international delegates gathered under the umbrella of the United Nations.

The same maps are displayed at, our interactive tool that allow users to explore the possible consequences of 4°C warming, 2°C warming, or other temperature or carbon emission scenarios, for any coastal city or postal code around the world.

The images below were created by visual artistbased on Climate Central’s sea level map data.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Climate Change Hits the West Coast (Photo Illustrations)

The Venice Beach, Calif. boardwalk now. (Nickolay Lamm)