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New One-Year Outlook Shows Locations At Risk For Human-Induced Earthquakes
New One-Year Outlook Shows Locations At Risk For Human-Induced Earthquakes
Jan 17, 2024 3:36 PM

New maps issued by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) on Monday provide a detailed look at areas not only prone to natural earthquakes, but also now locations where human-caused earthquakes could be a hazard. The new maps also accompany the first ever one-year outlook for earthquake activity across the nation.

The one-year outlook is meant to supplement USGS assessments already in circulation that give a 50-year forecast for earthquake hazards. The short timeframe of one year in the new outlook was chosen by the USGS because human-causedearthquakes can both increase and decrease over time, making it important information for both commercial and policy decisions,the report said.

(USGS)

“By including human-induced events, our assessment of earthquake hazards has significantly increased in parts of the U.S.,” said Mark Petersen, Chief of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project. “This research also shows that much more of the nation faces a significant chance of having damaging earthquakes over the next year, whether natural or human-induced.”

Human-induced earthquakes are mostly caused by wastewater injection into wells from oil and gas production. This is commonly referred to as fracking.

About 7 million people in the central and eastern United States live and work in locations where there is a possibility of damaging human-induced earthquakes. Ranked in order from highest to lowest, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico and Arkansas have the greatest potential for hazard, the USGS report said.

"There's no question that there's a lot of shaking going on in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas," Petersen said in an interview after a press conference Monday. "These are much higher ground motions" than the last time he created the longer-term map, in 2014.

For example, on that map the risk was low in Dallas; now, after a tenfold increase in risk, Petersen said it compares to places in California. The Dallas-Fort Worth area risk is between 2 to 5 percent this year, he said.

"Oklahoma and Texas have the largest population exposed to induced quakes," Petersen said.

North-central Oklahoma was said to have a 12 percent risk, and it has already been hit: A 5.1 magnitude quake caused some damage around Fairview in February.

Seismologist Rowena Lohman of Cornell University, who wasn't part of the map team, said the increase around Oklahoma is easily noticeable and scientists are trying to determine whether these man-made smaller quakes lead to larger events.

Within the states mentioned above and few others, the USGS identified 21 locations on the map below that have seen "increased rates of induced seismicity".

(USGS)

Arkansas, Kansas and Ohio saw dramatic reductions in man-made quakes when those states tighten restrictions on wastewater injections, according to USGS seismologist Justin Rubinstein

In Oklahoma, "the longer we go, the more we pump down there, the more likelihood we have that we're going to have larger quakes," Petersen said.

Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin said the research justifies action taken by Oklahoma earlier this year to cut back on injections.

"Recent declines in produced wastewater disposal in Oklahoma are not reflected in the USGS map," Fallin said. "This gives us even a stronger base in going forward and gives state regulators further justification for what they are doing."

Rubinstein said it's too early to see any results from Oklahoma's new efforts.

In the western states, the USGS said although there are some areas with induced earthquakes, they did not separate them out from the more common naturally-caused earthquakes in that region. This is because the induced earthquakes do not have a significant effect on the overall hazard level in that part of the country.

The increase in the natural quakes in the New Madrid area remains a mystery, Petersen said, but "it's higher than it's been in several years."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Biggest Earthquakes Since 1900

8. Rat Islands, Alaska, Feb. 4, 1965 – 8.7 Magnitude

Because this quake occurred in a remote area, relatively little damage was reported. (U.S. Army)

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