More than 800 oil spills were simulated using a computer model with real weather and water-current data measured at the Straits of Mackinac. This map shows the percentage of cases in which oil is present at a given location at any time after a Straits of Mackinac release.

(Dave Schwab, U-M Water Center)

The Great Lakes are the largest surface area of freshwater in the world, and a researcher with the University of Michigan Water Center is looking at how an oil spill could impact hundreds of miles of that shoreline.

Researcher Dave Schwab is investigating the potential danger of oil spills on the Straits of Mackinac, which connects more than 700 miles of the Great Lakes shoreline.

According to a release from the university, Schwab has calculated 840 possible cases of oil spills in his most comprehensive study yet. His illustrations show that an oil spill would rapidly spread into Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, affecting a total of 720 miles of shoreline in the U.S. and Canada, an area roughly the distance between Detroit and Atlanta.

A total of 720 miles (1,162 km) of shoreline are considered potentially vulnerable to Straits of Mackinac oil spills. This map shows the probability that beached oil concentrations would exceed the threshold needed to trigger shoreline cleanup following the release of 25,000 barrels at the Straits of Mackinac.

(David Schwab, U-M Water Center)

“Until now, no one knew exactly how much shoreline was vulnerable to spills in the Straits of Mackinac,” said Schwab. “These findings show that, under the right conditions, a spill in the Straits of Mackinac could affect a significant amount of shoreline and open-water areas in either Lake Michigan or Lake Huron, or both, very quickly.”

(MORE:Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Impacted Sea Turtles Globally)

Schwab presents three potential levels of oil discharge measured in barrels (bbl), each holding 42 US gallons of oil, including 5,000 bbl, 10,000 bbl and 25,000 bbl. In a single worst-case scenario, more than 150 miles of shoreline could be impacted with a spill amounting to 25,000 bbl.

Areas at the highest risk include Mackinac and Bois Blanc Islands, Mackinaw City, the shorelines east and west of the city, and areas along the north shore of the Straits near the Mackinac Bridge. Additional communities at risk include Beaver Island, Cross Village, Harbor Springs, Cheboygan and other areas of the Lake Huron-Michigan shoreline, according to the release.

This study is a detailed follow-up to Schwab’s 2014 pilot project, which also used computer simulations to determine how far and fast an oil spill could spread from the Straits of Mackinac.

“We hope this information will inform spill-response planning and will help government officials make sound decisions about the oil pipeline beneath the straits,” said Schwab.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Animals Affected by Santa Barbara Oil Spill