For at least one lake in the Arctic, methane has an unusual source: groundwater from seasonal thaw. This research, out of the University of California Santa Cruz, could mean more of the potent greenhouse gas emitted into the atmosphere.

The pattern is circular, UC Santa Cruz scientist Adina Paytan told weather.com.Climate change is warming up the Arctic, which is causing more of the top blanket of frozen soil (called the “active layer” of permafrost) to thaw and more methane to end up in Arctic waters. This, in turn, increases overall emissions — and furthers global warming. “This is called a positive feedback in the climate cycle,” she said.

This isn’t the best of news. In the battle for , pound for pound, methane beats carbon dioxide hands down, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Though it doesn’t stick around as long as — 12 years compared to CO2’s thousands of years, in some cases— the gas is much better at trapping radiation and is significantly worse for the atmosphere over a 100-year period.

Paytan and colleagues already knew Arctic waters like Toolik Lake, where they conducted their research, release methane. Bacteria living in oxygen-less places consume organics like decaying vegetation and generate the noxious gas as a byproduct.

As an aside, science is getting closer to understanding these bacteria. A study published in the journal Nature on Mar. 4, 2015, highlighted what researchers from the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) called a “.” Their work lead to the discovery of brand-new microbe species and determined that these “subzero microbes might be active.” Paytan wasn’t involved in that research.

Her team instead focused on what role seasonal thaw plays in the amount of methane delivered into the lake and then emitted into the atmosphere — an effect not well-studied or understood. “During the winter, the soil is frozen and water cannot flow. In the spring, as the temperature increases, the upper layer of the soil thaws,” Paytan said. “In this active layer, methane forms and can be transported with groundwater to the lakes. With climate warming the warm season will be longer and more soil will thaw.” The result: Longer periods for methane generation, more flowing H2O to move the methane to the Arctic lakes.

To draw these conclusions, the UC Santa Cruz team measured both methane levels in groundwater and its flow rate into Toolik Lake. Paytan said the scientists were surprised by how much of the lake’s methane could be derived from groundwater, and the fact that different parts of the lake absorbed different amounts of methane despite constant air temperatures.

Next up, the team plans to look at more seasonal thaw, groundwater flow and methane in more than a dozen additional lakes. Learning more about these processes is only half the battle, Paytan said. “To solve this problem, ultimately we need to slow down the warming trend, which means reducing our fossil fuel emissions.”

The research was published Monday, Mar. 9, 2015 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The ran in Nature on Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2015.

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