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Great Lakes Ice Cover Greatest in 35 Years, Levels Off
Great Lakes Ice Cover Greatest in 35 Years, Levels Off
Jan 17, 2024 3:31 PM

Thanks to a record-shattering late February and early March Arctic blast during one of the persistently coldest winters in decades, ice cover on the Great Lakes is now the most widespread in 35 years, and nearing an all-time record.

Satellite loop of Great Lakes ice cover Feb. 19 (before Winter Storm Seneca), Feb. 22 (after Seneca's high winds and brief thaw), and Mar. 3 (after an Arctic outbreak). (Images: NASA/MODIS)

According to an analysis by NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (NOAA/GLERL), ice cover peaked at 92.2 percent of the Great Lakes on March 6.In records dating to 1973, only February 1979 (94.7 percent peak) had a greater ice coverage.

This is an abrupt turn around from the past four winters, during which the peak ice coverage was around 40 percent or less. The 40-year average peak ice coverage each winter is about 51 percent.

Only a small area of southern Lake Michigan and much of western and central Lake Ontario had significant ice-free stretches, according to the March 6 NOAA/GLERL analysis.

About 94 percent of Lake Superior, just under 96 percent of Lake Huron, 96 percent of Lake Erie, and almost 92 percent of Lake Michigan was ice-covered on March 6.

Ice concentration on Lake Ontario as of 1 a.m. ET Mar. 7, 2014. Higher/lower ice concentration is illustrated by gray/blue shading. (NOAA/GLERL)

Lake Ontario, which typically gets less ice coverage because it has three times the volume of water compared to Lake Erie, peaked at 59 percent ice-covered.

The ice coverage has set an early March record, topping March ice cover in the previous two standard-bearing years, 1979 and 1994:

March 5, 1979: 75.98 percentMarch 4, 1994: 85.78 percent

High winds from Winter Storm Senecaand a brief thaw in late February reduced ice cover to just under 62 percent on Feb. 23. After that, a bitterly cold Arctic outbreak by late February and early March standards sent ice cover surging again.

(MORE:March Record Cold Recap)

Comparing the early March ice cover to the record ice season of 1979, you can see the late peak of 2014 compared to the more typical mid-February peak in 1979 in the chart below.

As a result, wild scenes have amazed residents near the Great Lakes, from ice caves open to foot traffic, to ice caves demolished, to ice volcanoes.

(PHOTOS:Apostle Islands Ice Caves| Ice Volcanoes| Ontario Ice Caves Destroyed)

Will the cold persist to allow ice coverage to top the 1979 record?

This weekend, after a weak cold front glides through, west-southwest winds should send temperatures above freezing for most Great Lakes locations as the start of the new week.

After that brief warmer spell, a return to colder-than-average conditions will occur by mid-late week.

So, it remains to be seen whether ice cover can recover sufficiently following the brief thaw, and any wind-driven churning of the lakes from the potential winter storm.

Thanks to this heavy ice cover, evaporation will be greatly reduced into early spring. Furthermore, with a heavy snowpack around many of the Great Lakes, snowmelt will replenish recently low lake levels.

The U.S. Army Corps predicts Lake Superior water levels could rise 13 inches higher than spring 2013 levels, potentially topping March long-term average levels for the first time in 16 years

Similar rises may also occur the other Great Lakes, however, Lakes Michigan and Huron are still expected to remain below their long-term average.

If you have any amazing photos or video of the Great Lakes ice cover, we'd love to see them. Share them with us at weather.com/photos, our Facebook page, or via Twitter.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Great Lakes Ice 2013-2014

Ice covers the shoreline of Lake Michigan on Feb. 18, 2014 in Chicago, Ill. This winter’s prolonged cold weather has caused more than 88 percent of the Great Lakes to be covered in ice which is near the record of 95 percent set in Feb. 1979. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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