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Central New Zealand at Risk for 'Megathrust' Earthquakes, Study Says
Central New Zealand at Risk for 'Megathrust' Earthquakes, Study Says
Jan 17, 2024 3:36 PM

Wellington, N.Z.

A bout that used to be on the edge of the road sits in the harbour where the land fell into the sea at the Port Wellington Container terminal caused by an earthquake on July 21, 2013. (Marty Melville/AFP/Getty Images)

New Zealand may be looking at a worst-case scenario, after a recently published study revealed the country is in danger of experiencing a ‘megathrust’ earthquake.

The study revealed the Pacific plate just off of the country’s east coast is the Australian plate, which could cause all three segments of the Hikurangi Margin to rupture at the same time, NewScientist reported.

A megathrust earthquake is an earthquake of large proportions that occurs in a subduction zone, or a zone where two tectonic plates collide, with one sliding beneath the other.

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The area affected would , or central New Zealand, Stuff.co.nz says. Ther region could see quakes similar to the 9.0 monster that struck Japan, in May 2011, as well as a tsunami.

Marlborough, New Zealand, where Kate Clark and colleagues performed the study. (Photo Credit: GNS Science)

Kate Clark, paleoecologist and earthquake geologist of GNS Science research consultancy, and other colleagues explored salt marshes in New Zealand, examining sediments and using radiocarbon dating to determine the area’s risk factor, NewScientist reports.

They discovered the over the past 1,000 years, which occurred beneath Cook Strait, the New Zealand Herald said. The first quake occurred between 880 and 800 years ago, and the second occurred between 520 to 470 years.

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The evidence surprised scientists, who said in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, “This is the first evidence that the southern Hikurangi margin ruptures in large (7-7.9) to great (8+) earthquakes, and the relatively short time interval between the two events has significant implications for seismic hazard in New Zealand.”

According to previous models outlining a possible ‘megathrust’ quake, in Wellington alone, an event could cause more than 3,000 fatalities and over $13 billion worth of damage, NewScientist reports.Wellington was in July 2013, which injured four and caused minor structural damage.

Bruce Pepperell, Wellington region civil defense controller, told local media safety messages and evacuation plans would likely not change in light of this new evidence. He stressed communities should ban together and prepare disaster response and evacuation plans, which will be vital if an event is to occur.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Before and After the Japan Tsunami of May 2011

In this image a man climbs onto a boat wedged on a bridge on March 18, 2011 in Ishinomaki, Japan. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

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