At a Glance

An area of disturbed weather is unlikely to become a tropical storm. Regardless, heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flooding and landslides in parts of the Caribbean. November development during a strong El Niño is extremely rare.

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A tropical storm is unlikely to develop, but a flood danger will continue into the weekend in parts of the Bahamas, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and the Turks and Caicos.

W​hat we're watching: A disorganized disturbance is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea to the southeast Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center assigned this disturbed area the label "Invest 98L". Short for "investigation", triggers the running of sophisticated, high-resolution computer models for those disturbances they monitor for development.

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W​hat could happen next: The system will sweep northeastward into eastern Cuba, then over the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas Saturday before being swept into the southwest Atlantic Ocean by Sunday. This is not a threat to the mainland U.S.

W​hat are the potential impacts: Regardless of what meteorologists call it, locally heavy rainfall is the most dangerous threat this weekend.

T​his rain will be heaviest along and to the east of the system's path and over hilly and mountainous terrain in eastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola. Dangerous flash flooding and landslides are possible in these areas. Some areas may see more than a foot of total rainfall.

High surf and rip currents are possible along south-facing shorelines of eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Some stronger wind gusts could add to the threat of downed trees in rain-soaked ground, and power outages into Saturday.

W​hy this is unusual: As we've discussed before, November is still hurricane season, and typically generates a storm every 1 to 2 years. The western Caribbean Sea is one place that typically happens.

While this strong El Niño is ,​ it's usually much harder to generate a tropical depression or storm during a .​ As we discussed in , plenty of wind shear and sinking air are usually in play over the Caribbean Sea this time of year during a strong El Niño that would squash any tropical development.

I​n records dating to 1950, only three systems have previously become depressions or storms in November during a strong El Niño in the Atlantic Basin. As you can see in the track map below, none of those systems did so in the Caribbean Sea.

The tracks of systems that first became tropical or subtropical storms in November during a strong El Niño from 1950-2022.

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ How The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Measures Up

-​ A Typical November During A Stronger El Niño In The Tropics

-​ 6 Changes A Stronger El Niño Could Bring This Winter

-​ How El Niño Got Its Name

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.

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